(NASDAQ) – U.S. farmers are expected to harvest a record corn crop this year and the third-largest soybean crop in history if good weather prevails, according to analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Tuesday is scheduled to release an important monthly crop report, providing updated forecasts for crop supplies and demand at a time when farmers and grain traders are increasingly focusing on the weather and as crops enter or near their critical phases of development.
Meanwhile, the USDA likely will project soybean output at 3.878 billion bushels on yields of 46.8 bushels an acre, both up from month-ago estimates, according to analysts.
The USDA is expected to boost its projections for corn and soybean production after the agency on June 30 said U.S. growers this spring planted more corn and soybeans than originally anticipated. According to the government, domestic farmers planted 94.1 million acres of corn this year, up nearly 7% from 2015 and above the government’s March estimate. The USDA also revised upward its estimate for planted soybean acreage in June, saying farmers seeded about 1% more in acres of the oilseed this year than last, and more than the government had expected in March.
Good weather during the spring and a rally in agricultural commodity prices prompted growers to ramp up crop plantings this year. Largely favorable conditions also have graced the Midwest throughout the early part of the growing season, which could boost crop yields if they continue. If hot, dry weather takes hold during the latter half of July, however, crop yields could suffer, denting production.
“It looks like we’re going to have a big corn crop,” said Don Roose, president of U.S. Commodities, a brokerage in West Des Moines, Iowa, noting good conditions for both corn and soybean crops. Still, he said, “the weather looks more threatening as you get into July.”
Corn stockpiles at the end of the current season on Aug. 31 likely will total 1.784 billion bushels, up from June’s estimate of 1.708 billion, the surveyed analysts said. For the season that ends August 2017, grain inventories are expected to rise to 2.189 billion bushels.
Soybean reserves are expected to decline, however, with analysts anticipating the USDA will project domestic stockpiles of the oilseed at 354 million bushels at the end of the coming August, down from the government’s month-ago estimate for 370 million. Inventories the following year likely will decrease further, coming in at 290 million bushels, according to the analysts.
Global corn stockpiles in the 2016-17 season will likely total 206 million metric tons, down slightly from the current season’s estimate. World soybean inventories will probably drop to 67.5 million tons from a projected 71.7 million this year, the analysts said.
Analysts expect the USDA to forecast total U.S. wheat production in 2016-17 at 2.155 billion bushels, which is up from 2.052 billion bushels harvested last season and also an increase from the government’s June outlook.
Domestic wheat stockpiles at the end of the 2015-16 season likely will be pegged at 982 million bushels, and inventories of the grain are expected to swell in the following season to 1.1 billion bushels.
Globally, wheat reserves for 2016-17 likely will come in at 259.2 million metric tons on Tuesday, up from an estimated 243.2 million in 2015-16, according to the survey.
