(Agriculture.com) – Lower commodity prices will pull down U.S. agricultural exports by 7% this year from the record sales value set in fiscal 2014, said the Agriculture Department in a quarterly forecast issued at its Outlook Forumn Thursday.
USDA estimated exports at $141.5 billion, down $2 billion from its December forecast and $11 billion less than last year. “Most of the reduction in value is due to lower prices for grain and feed exports, as volumes are up for several sectors, including soybeans and soybean products, cotton and rice,” said USDA chief economist Robert Johansson.
Soybeans, soymeal and soyoil exports are forecast for record tonnages. USDA raised its forecast for soybean exports by $1.5 billion from its December estimate, to $21.3 billion, “with strong demand from China.” Cotton tonnage is up but with lower prices, cotton exports will be worth $3.7 billion this year, a drop of $900 million.
Corn exports are pegged at $8.5 billion this year, down 22 percent from 2014, as tonnage drops by 12 percent, to 44.5 million tonnes.
Exports usually account for 25 cents of each $1 of receipts for farmers and are the outlet for a large part of U.S. production. More than 40% of the soybean and wheat crops and two-thirds of the cotton harvest are exported, along with 12% of corn,
China “is expected to remain the largest destination for U.S. agricultural products for the fifth consecutive year,” said USDA although purchases will drop by $2 billion, to $23.6 billion. China buys nearly one-fifth of U.S. farm exports. Canada is the No 2 market at $21.8 billion and Mexico is No 3 at $18.7 billion.
The world’s largest importer of soybeans and cotton, China is expected to limit its corn imports “to prevent its corn stockpile from going even larger and to dispose of those (large domestic) stocks,” said Johansson. “China’s annual imports of distillers dried grains of approximately 5 million tonnes now exceed its imports of corn.”
“Similarly, China now purchases the majority of U.S. sorghum and significant amounts of barley. USDA projects that China’s recent increases in sorghum and barley imports – used mainly as a feed – will continue in the future,” said Johansson.
