February milk production up 1.1%

(Dairy Herd Management) – February 2014 milk production in the 23 major dairy states totaled 14.92 billion lbs., up 1.4% from February 2013, according to USDA’s monthly Milk Production report. Nationally, production was estimated at 15.94 billion lbs., up 1.1% from the year before.

Market analysts characterized USDA’s estimates as mostly neutral compared to pre-report expectations.

February 2014 cow numbers in the 23 states, at 8.51 million head, were down 1,000 head from January, but 13,000 head more than a year ago. Monthly output per cow averaged 1,753 lbs., up 21 lbs. from a year earlier.

Nationally, cow numbers were estimated at 9.21 million, unchanged from January 2014, but 12,000 less than February 2013. Output per cow was put at 1,730 lbs., also up 21 lbs. from a year earlier.

One notable change to the list: South Dakota was added to the list of 23 major dairy states, replacing Missouri.

Individual states showed virtually no changes in cow numbers in the past month. Looking at year-ago numbers, Idaho cow numbers were down 11,000; with Minnesota and Ohio each down 5,000 head.

Compared to a year earlier, dow numbers were up by 5,000 each in Colorado, Kansas, New York and Texas; and up 4,000 each in Indiana, Utah and Washington.

FCStones’ Dave Kurzawski said the report was mostly neutral to pre-report estimates, with perhaps a slightly bearish lean. While milk per cow was right in line with expectations, cow numbers were slightly below expectations, despite a revision higher in the January number.

“We could construe this as slightly bearish due to the revisions, and strong growth despite relatively poor weather in the upper Midwest; futures look to be just slightly softer since the report was released.”

The state-by-state breakdown continued the recent trend of strong West Coast production, while the Upper Midwest and East Coast suffered due to the continued harsh winter weather, Kurzawski said. Largest declines in milk production was seen in Ohio, -3.7%; Illinois, -3.3%; Iowa, -2.8%; Minnesota, -2.3%; and Wisconsin, -2.0%. New Mexico also suffered, -1.4%, as milk per cow slipped likely due to water issues.

In contrast, California was up 5.3% for February, as they continue to make up for the lack of milk in the Upper Midwest. Colorado was +6.0%; Utah, +4.0%; Kansas, +3.6%; Oregon, +3.1%; Texas, +3.2%; and Washington, +3.1%. Idaho milk production was +2.6% year-over-year.