(Agrimoney) – Be careful what you wish for.
The drier weather which farmers had hoped for – after persistent rains threatened crop prospects, and prevented some sowings, in much of the Midwest – may be getting a bit too dry, US officials warned, even as they upgraded their rating for domestic soybeans for the first time this season.
The US Department of Agriculture lifted its forecast for the US soybean crop by 1 point rated “good” or “excellent”.
The upgrade, in line with market expectations, took the good or excellent rating to 63%, a typical reading for the time of year, although below the 71% reading a year ago, when US soybeans were heading for a record yield.
And it reflected improved condition in states such as Indiana and Ohio where heavy rains had undermined been a problem until mid-July.
‘Fields a bit dry’
However, even as officials in these areas welcomed the drier turn, they cautioned over the potential for fresh crop damage if it continues too far.
In Indiana, USDA scouts reported that “after an abundance of rain earlier in the summer, some farmers are now finding fields a bit dry”, prompting “moisture stress on some crops in sandy soils.
“Some farmers even reported turning on irrigation systems.”
The scouts noted that, for soybeans, “some growers have found plants without much of a root structure”, a typical hangover to crops from the wet conditions.
They also flagged in corn that the “height and colour tone of plants varied from field to field due to nitrogen deficiency and damage from June rains”, with the fertilizer particularly vulnerable to leaching.
‘Adverse effects’
North in Michigan, while officials flagged potential crop damage from “heavy rains, high winds, hail, and even tornadoes”, they added that many growers “welcomed the rain as it provided some relief to crops suffering from a lack of moisture”.
And in Ohio, where crops also improved last week, scouts noted that the “biggest concern for corn at this point is the loss of nitrogen, and shallow root systems that developed when moisture surpluses were prevalent.
“Ironically, shallow-rooted plants will need regular rainfall to reach their maximum potential.
“Growers in some areas have already noticed adverse effects from prolonged drier conditions.”
‘Timely rain is needed’
Meanwhile, north west in Wisconsin, scouts flagged that “many reporters noted that crops and pastures were showing signs of stress from the lack of moisture, particularly on sandy soils.
“Timely rain is needed to ensure pollination and grain development in corn and soybeans.”
At Chicago broker, RJ O’Brien, Richard Felts said that “we’ll need good Midwest coverage this week to pre-empt [crop] ratings slippage next week”.
Dryness has already begun to erode crop ratings in the Delta states although, with the area a relatively small corn and soybean producer, and crops already being harvested, the lack of moisture is not viewed as such a threat to the national rating.
Weather outlook
In fact, according to weather service MDA, rains will “return to the north western Midwest later this week, which should further improve moisture for corn and soybean growth” in states such as Wisconsin.
Southern and eastern Midwest areas should also receive some rain, although “some dryness will likely build further” in southern Delta areas.
However, looking into next week, the outlook has turned drier, and meant that moisture levels for crops “would begin to decline again in the central and southern Midwest”, MDA’s Don Keeney said.
