Deterioration in Crop Conditions Makes Corn Bulls Happy

(Corn and Soybean Digest) – Corn bulls are happy to see the USDA lower crop-conditions down from 70% to 68% rated “Good-to-Excellent”. The biggest deterioration came in North Dakota which was down -9%, from 79% to 70% rated GD/EX on continued dry conditions. Colorado was reported down -6% from 63% to 57%; South Dakota down -4% from 69% to 65%; Minnesota down from 77% to 74% and Wisconsin down 78% to 75%; Iowa down -2% from 75% to 73%; Kansas down -1% from 47% to 46%.

States that showed some improvement were: Kentucky +4%; Michigan +3%; Missouri and Pennsylvania +2%; Nebraska and Ohio +1%. Illinois, Indiana, North Carolina and Texas were left “unchanged”. The USDA is showing corn in the “dough” stage at 85%, which is well ahead of the 5-year average of 72%. Corn in the “dented” stage is reported at 44% vs. the 5-year average of 26%.

The Pro Farmer Crop Tour kicked off yesterday and estimates were released last night for both Ohio and South Dakota. Ohio is forecast at a yield of 179.57 bushels per acre up +9% from last year’s 164.62 tour yield estimate. The 3-year tour average for Ohio is 153.98 bushels per acre. South Dakota is forecast at a yield of 178.01 bushels per acre up about +20% from last years 147.97 tour forecast. The 3-year yield average for South Dakota is 154.56 bushels per acre.

The eastern leg of tour now moves on to Indiana, while the western leg of the tour will be in Nebraska.

From a technical perspective, heavy resistance is still seen in the $3.90 to $4.10 range. On the downside, $3.50 still appears to be longer-term support.