Corn set for biggest weekly drop in nearly 2 months on crop outlook

November 1st, 2013

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Category: Grains, Oilseeds

(Reuters) – U.S. corn futures were flat on Friday near a three-year low as expectations of a bumper U.S. crop continued to weigh, putting the grain on course for its biggest weekly loss in nearly two months.

Soybeans firmed for the third session out of four on brisk exports but was set to record a weekly loss of nearly 1.5 percent, while wheat was poised to record its biggest weekly slide since early August.

Chicago Board of Trade front-month corn was unchanged at $4.28-1/4 a bushel, having closed down 0.5 percent on Thursday when the grain hit a three-year low of $4.27 a bushel. It is on track to lose around 2.6 percent for the week, its biggest weekly fall since the week of Sept. 13.

Corn has come under sustained pressure in recent days on the progress of the U.S. harvest, which has raised market expectations that the U.S. Department of Agriculture will increase its production estimate in its next monthly report on November 8.

“Better-than-expected U.S. corn export sales last week supported values, but forecasts that the current U.S. corn harvest will produce more than 14 billion bushels of grain, and therefore allow a massive rebound in U.S. corn inventories this year, continues to hang over the market,” said Luke Mathews, commodities strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

The corn crop is already estimated to be record-sized.

The International Grains Council raised its forecast for global 2013/14 corn output by 5 million tonnes.

Corn sales during the U.S. government’s 16-day partial shutdown totaled 4,555,500 tonnes for the 2013/14 season, nearly twice as large as the high end of trade estimates.

November soybeans rose 0.3 percent to $12.69-1/2 a bushel, having closed little changed in the previous session.

Traders said the gains were being underpinned by export demand, shrugging off downward pressure from expectations that the USDA will increase its production forecast.

Soybean export sales for 2013/14 were 4.7 million tonnes, topping estimates.

China, the world’s largest buyer of soybeans, bought nearly half of the soy (2,112,300 tonnes), and there was a large sale of 550,800 tonnes to an unknown destination.

December wheat was unchanged but is set to be down nearly 3.5 percent for the week, its biggest slide since early August.

Wheat has come under pressure this week as production concerns in Argentina and the Black Sea region eased.

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