(Agrimoney) – World rapeseed output will fall for the first time in five years, led by a particularly sharp decline in production in the European Union, the top grower, the International Grains Council said.
The council, in its first forecast for world rapeseed output in 2015-16, pegged it at 68.9m tonnes, a drop of 3.8% year on year.
The forecast reflected in the main an estimate of an 11.7% tumble in output in the European Union from last year’s record high, with production this time pegged at 21.2m tonnes.
That is below a forecast of 21.5m tonnes from Strategie Grains, the Paris-based analysis group, and reflected in the main an expectation of lower yields, hurt by a ban on a controversial insecticide type.
‘High levels of pest damage’
“Crops are generally developing well in most areas, including in France,” the IGC said.
“However, a mild autumn and an earlier ban on neonicotinoid insecticides led to fast plant growth and high levels of pest damage in some parts, notably in Germany and the UK.”
Some crops were also “still vulnerable to frost damage”, although “little winterkill has been observed thus far”.
The German crop, recently the EU’s biggest, was seen tumbling 19.3% to 5.0m tonnes, on a 6.4% drop in sowings, with UK output seen falling by 11.6% to 2.2m tonnes, a fall again well ahead of the drop in plantings.
IGC projections show France retaking top spot in the EU with a 5.1m-tonne harvest, a decline of 7.6% year on year, on sowings down 1.0%.
Canola vs wheat
For Ukraine, the IGC forecast a 17.6% drop in output to 1.9m tonnes, warning that while crops appeared to have “survived the winter despite inadequate snow cover”, yield prospects may have been curtailed by “economic and financial constraints which resulted in the reduced use of high quality inputs”.
And while concurring with an official Canadian forecast of a 2.9% rise to 16.0m tonnes in the country’s output of canola, the rapeseed variant, the council warned that sowings could yet fall short of expectations.
“Although canola is generally deemed more profitable than other crops, returns relative to spring wheat – which accounts for the second largest sown area after canola – appear to have fallen compared to a year ago.
“Accordingly, there is the potential for farmers to favour wheat over canola, particularly in fields that would benefit from rotational changes.”
Canola is usually sown in spring in Canada, in contrast to the European Union, where rapeseed is usually autumn planted.
