(AgriMoney) – The world grains harvest will fall next season, but not by much, the International Grains Council said, lifting hopes for global wheat production and foreseeing record corn output.
The intergovernmental group, in its first forecast for 2014-15, pegged world production of wheat and coarse grains at 1.949m tonnes, a figure second only to the 1.967m tonnes estimated for this season.
The expectation of an 18m-tonne decline was based on ideas of lower yields for most grains, with the notable exception of corn, after strong performances last time.
Nonetheless, the IGC lifted by 4m tonnes to 700m tonnes its estimate for wheat production next season, reducing to 9m tonnes the decline expected from the record 2013-14 harvest.
Corn stocks to rise
For corn, the council, lifted its estimate for 2014-15 by 7m tonnes to 961m tonnes, representing a 2m-tonne rise year on year.
“Preliminary projections indicate a slight expansion in area and, assuming yields at similar levels to the previous year, output is forecast up 0.3%.”
While “strong demand growth is also expected”, at 945m tonnes, up 1.5% year on year, it will fall short of output allowing global corn inventories to rebuild to a 15-year high of 171m tonnes at the close of the season.
This would represent a rise of 35% in stocks in two years.
‘Entirely absorb output’
Wheat inventories, however, are expected to show only a minimal rise next season, rising by 1m tonnes to 190m tonnes.
“Growth in food and feed demand are expected to entirely absorb output, with carryover stocks forecast to be little changed,” the council said.
