(Farm and Ranch Guide) – The USDA Crop Production Report released on Sept. 11 is projecting record U.S. production in 2014 for both corn and soybeans.
Production levels for both crops were increased by about 3 percent in the latest USDA report, as compared to the August USDA report. USDA left the anticipated harvested acres for corn at 83.8 million acres, and for soybeans at 84.1 million acres, which are unchanged from the Aug. 1 estimate.
The USDA report is also estimating record national yield levels for both corn and soybeans in 2014, with increases from the August estimates, and significant increases compared to recent years. The increased corn and soybean yield expectations by USDA are due to very favorable weather conditions in the 2014 growing season in many of the prime corn and soybean production regions of the U.S.
Based on the Sept. 11 report, 2014 corn production is estimated at a record level of 14.4 billion bushels, which compares to a 13.9 billion bushel corn production level in 2013. Total U.S. corn production was 10.8 billion bushels in the drought year of 2012, 12.3 billion bushels in 2011, and 12.5 billion bushels in 2010.
The 2014 average U.S. corn yield is now estimated at a new record level of 171.7 bushels per acre, which is an increase of 4.3 bushels per acre from the August yield estimate. The 2014 projected national average corn yield would be well above recent U.S. corn yields of 158.8 bushels per acre in 2013, 123.4 bushels per acre in 2012, and 147.2 bushels per acre in 2011. The previous record U.S. average corn yield was 164.7 bushels per acre in 2009.
The USDA report is now estimating total soybean production in 2014 at a record level of 3.91 billion bushels, which compares to a soybean production level of 3.15 billion bushels in 2013.
Other recent U.S. soybean production levels were 3.01 billion bushels in 2012, 3.06 billion bushels in 2011, and 3.33 billion bushels in 2010. The average U.S. soybean yield for 2014 is now estimated at the record level of 46.6 bushels per acre, which is an increase from the August USDA estimate of 45.4 bushels per acre.
The 2014 U.S. soybean yield estimate compares to 43.3 bushels per acre in 2013, 39.6 bushels per acre in 2012, and 41.5 bushels per acre in 2011. The previous record U.S. soybean yield was 44.0 bushels per acre in 2009.
Minnesota is one of the few Midwestern states not projecting record corn and soybean yields for 2014. Based on the Sept. 11 report, USDA is estimating the 2014 corn yield in Minnesota at 170 bushels per acre, which is an increase of 4 bushels per acre from the August estimate.
The 2014 yield estimate compares to statewide corn yields of 160 bushels per acre in 2013, 165 bushels per acre in 2012, 156 bushels per acre in 2011, and the record corn yield of 177 bushels per acre in 2010.
The 2014 Minnesota soybean yield is estimated at 42 bushels per acre, which is above recent statewide soybean yields of 41 bushels per acre in 2013, 41.5 bushels per acre in 2012, 38.5 bushels per acre in 2011, but below the record soybean yield of 45 bushels per acre in 2010.
USDA is now estimating the 2014 average corn yield in Iowa to be a new record at 185 bushels per acre, which is well above recent yield levels of 165 bushels per acre in 2013, 142 bushels per acre in 2012, and 172 bushels per acre in 2011.
Illinois is also projected to have a record 2014 average corn yield of 194 bushels per acre, compared to 178 bushels per acre in 2013.
Other 2014 estimated corn yields are 184 bushels per acre for Indiana, compared to 177 bushels per acre in 2013; 179 bushels per acre in Nebraska, compared to 170 bushels per acre in 2013; and 148 bushels per acre in South Dakota, compared to 138 bushels per acre in 2013.
Based on the latest USDA report, the 2014 Iowa soybean yield is estimated at 51 bushels per acre, which is well above the 2013 average yield of 44.5 bushels per acre. Other 2014 state average soybean yields are Illinois at 56 bushels per acre, compared to 49 bushels per acre in 2013; Indiana at 52 bushels per acre, compared to 51 bushels per acre in 2013; Nebraska at 53 bushels per acre, which is the same as 2013; and South Dakota at 42 bushels per acre, compared to 40 bushels per acre in 2013.
Projected 2014-15 carryover stocks
USDA also released the monthly World Supply Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WADSE) on Sept. 11, which includes the latest estimates for 2014-15 carryover stocks of corn, soybeans, and other grains. USDA is now estimating 2014-15 U.S. corn ending stocks at just over 2 billion bushels, which is an increase of nearly 200 million bushels from to the Aug. 1 carryover estimate.
If the current WADSE projection is correct, U.S. corn stocks for 2014-2015 will be at the highest level since 2004-2005. The expected 2013-2014 final corn ending stocks are now estimated at 1.18 billion bushels, which compares to the final 2012-2013 corn carryover stocks of 821 million bushels.
Based on current corn usage estimates, the estimated 2014-2015 ending stocks-to-use ratio for corn is 14.7 percent, which represents about 54 days of usage, and is at the highest level in recent years. The USDA marketing year runs from Sept. 1 to Aug. 31 each year.
USDA is expecting 2014-15 soybean carryover stocks to be 475 million bushels, which is an increase from the Aug. 1 estimate of 430 million bushels, and would be at the highest level since 2006-07. The final 2013-14 final soybean ending stocks are projected at 130 million bushels, which compares to the final ending stocks of 141 million bushels in 2012-13.
The estimated ending stocks-to-use ratio for soybeans is 13.3 percent, or approximately 48 days of usage, based on current 2014-15 soybean usages estimates. The latest WADSE estimates would result in projected 2014-15 soybean ending stocks being at much higher levels heading into the 2015 growing season, as compared to recent years.
USDA is currently estimating the U.S average cash corn price for the 2014-2015 marketing year (Sept. 1 to Aug. 31) in a range of $3.20 – $3.80 per bushel, or an average of $3.50 per bushel, which was a decrease of $.40 per bushel from August estimates.
The final U.S. average corn price is currently estimated at $4.45 per bushel for 2013-2014, compared to $6.89 per bushel for 2012-13, $6.22 per bushel for 2011-12, and $5.18 per bushel for 2010-11. The projected 2014-15 national average corn price is the lowest since the 2009-10 average price of $3.55 per bushel.
USDA is projecting the U.S. average cash soybean price for 2014-2015 in a range of $9-$11 per bushel, resulting in an average soybean price of $10 per bushel, which is a decrease of $.35 per bushel from the August estimates.
The final U.S. average soybean price for 2013-14 is currently estimated at $13 per bushel, compared to $14.40 per bushel for 2012-13, $12.50 per bushel for 2011-12, and $11.30 per bushel for 2010-11. The projected 2014-15 national average soybean price is the lowest since the 2009-10 average price of $9.59 per bushel.
