(Agrimoney) – US soybeans sowings are set to drop this year, according to a survey of farmers, weather favours a strong start to corn sowings.
A survey of by Illinois-based brokers Allendale, showed row crop farmers favouring corn plantings over soybeans, to a greater than expected extent.
The results raises the possibility of a tweak to acreages when the US Department of Agriculture updates its forecast at the end of this month, with government estimates currently showing a slight uptick to soybean plantings.
Soybean to dip
The survey of farmers across 25-states showed corn plantings rising at 90.431m acres.
This is an increase of 2.432m acres from 2015.
And soybean acres were seen dipping, year on year, down 75,000 acres to 82.575m acres.
Assuming on-trend yields, this would suggest a US corn crop of 13.632bn bushels, and a soy crop of 3.722bn bushels.
Figures a surprise
The US Department of Agriculture has corn sowings rising to 90.0m acres, while soybean sowings are seen rising as well, to 82.5m acres.
Private analytics firm Informa Economics in January forecast soybean plantings at 85.23m, with corn plantings forecast at 88.869m acres.
And in fact the decline in soybean sowings was a surprise to Allendale as well.
Allendale’s had previously expected an increase of 1.2m acres for corn and 900,000 acres for soybeans
Corn Soybean
Farmers favouring corn in part due to higher perceived profitability.
The closely watch ratio between November soybeans futures and December corn futures in Chicago is standing around 2.3.
Generally a ratio of over 2.4 is considered to send a strong signal to plant soybeans.
But Rich Nelson, Allendale’s chief strategist, said that weather was also playing a role.
Warm weather
“We knew that corn was going to pay more,” said Mr Nelson, but he noted that farmers had previously been seen “concerned about net cost of inputs,” which would tend to favour soybeans.
But Mr Nelson said farmers were responding to some developing warm weather, which is encouraging corn plantings.
Corn is generally planted earlier than soybeans.
“The forecast for next month is for above normal temperatures, normal or below normal precipitation,” said Mr Nelson.
“That would be ideal for getting corn in.”
“Over the next few weeks the trade will look at the weather very closely,” Mr Nelson said, adding that there was currently nothing on the horizon that might disrupt this corn-on picture.
Wheat plantings to fall
Allendale’s survey saw total wheat plantings at 51.769m acres, a drop year on year, but above the USDA forecast of 51.0m tonnes.
Seedings of spring wheat, excluding durum, were seen at 13.185m acres, slightly down, while durum wheat seedings were seen at 1.975m acres.
Mr Nelson said the spring wheat figure was in line with their expectations, as leftover winter wheat acreages went to sorghum and barley plantings.
Given trend yields, the Allendale number would imply a wheat crop of 1.998bn bushels.
