US chocolate industry adapts to steadily slowing consumption

(Food Dive) – U.S. retail chocolate sales have risen about 3% annually over the last 10 or 15 years, slightly faster than conventional foods as a whole, according to a UBS report. Last year’s sales reached around $18 billion.

But those sales numbers may be deceiving. The report also found that U.S. per capita volume consumption for chocolate has declined at a CAGR of 3% since hitting a peak in 2005 to 2006. Sales appear to be rising not because of increased consumption but rather because of favorable pricing for the industry.

Dark chocolate, however, is a segment outperforming the category as a whole with 6.8% sales growth last year, as compared to 2.5% for chocolate overall, according to Nielsen. Dark chocolate comprised more than one-third (36%) of all chocolate launched in the U.S. in 2014, which then moved to 37% in 2015, according to Mintel.

Dive Insight:

The sales numbers, despite slowing per capita consumption, demonstrate consumers’ trend toward premium chocolate varieties. Mainstream brands still make up the bulk of U.S. chocolate sales at about 88%, but the premium category is the second largest, according to Nielsen.

Premium chocolate makes up about 8% of total U.S. chocolate sales, according to Candy Industry. Premium chocolate can be a boon to even mainstream chocolate producers, as premium varieties tend to command higher prices and heftier profit margins.

Seasonal chocolate is also a major contributor to segment sales around the holidays, but it tends to carry lower margins due to heavy promotional spending. Easter leads candy-centric holidays, followed by Halloween and Valentine’s Day. But even for this past Valentine’s Day, Euromonitor predicted that volume sales for chocolate would drop 0.6%.