Update 2-IGC Raises Forecast for 2018/19 World Corn Crop

January 25th, 2019

By:

Category: Grains

(CNBC) – The International Grains Council on Thursday raised its forecast for world corn (maize) production in the 2018/19 season, largely driven by an improved crop outlook in the United States.

The inter-governmental body, in a monthly update, put world corn production in 2018/19 at 1.064 billion tonnes, up 12 million from its previous projection.

The IGC saw the U.S. corn crop in 2018/19 at 370.5 million tonnes, well above its previous forecast of 359 million and now almost on a par with last season’s 371 million.

The annual Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour this week has projected above average corn yields in several states including Illinois, Nebraska, South Dakota, Indiana and Ohio.

A drawdown in global corn stocks, however, is still seen with global consumption upwardly revised to 1.105 billion tonnes, up from a previous forecast of 1.098 billion.

“Because of tighter supplies, use of wheat and barley are seen falling, likely transferring some demand to maize (corn), particularly in the livestock sector,” the IGC said.

The IGC also reduced its forecast for world wheat production in 2018/19 by 5 million tonnes to 716 million tonnes while consumption was also cut by 5 million tonnes to 734 million.

“Because of adverse weather there are further cuts to crop estimates in the European Union and Australia,” the IGC said.

The IGC cut its forecast for the EU’s wheat crop to 135.8 million tonnes from a previous forecast of 139.9 million, driven by downward revisions for crops in Germany, Denmark and Britain.

European farmers are counting the cost of a summer heatwave that has shrunk cereal harvests and shrivelled pastures, leaving some farms struggling to survive and shutting the EU out of lucrative export markets.

Major wheat exporter Australia has also been suffering from drought, with parts of the country’s east coast suffering the driest conditions in living memory.

The IGC cut its forecast for Australia’s wheat crop to 20.5 million tonnes from 22.5 million.

The inter-governmental body also raised its forecast for global soybean production in 2018/19 by seven million tonnes to 366 million, “reflecting an upgraded outlook for U.S. yields.”

Add New Comment

Forgot password? or Register

You are commenting as a guest.