U.S. Estimates 2019 Wheat Crop At 1,962 Million Bus

The all-wheat harvested area in 2019 was estimated at 38,052,000 acres, down 1,560,000 acres, or 4%, from 39,612,000 acres in 2018. The average wheat yield in 2019 was estimated at 51.6 bus per acre compared with 47.6 bus per acre in 2018. It was the second highest average yield on record, falling short only to 52.7 bus per acre in 2016.

The U.S.D.A. noted that when it surveyed producers for the summary report there remained significant unharvested acreage of durum in Idaho, Montana and North Dakota, and a large proportion of other-spring wheat acreage not yet harvested in Idaho, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota and Washington.

“The unharvested area and expected production were included in totals published in this report,” the U.S.D.A. said. The department said it would recontact respondents who previously reported acreage not yet harvested. “If the collected data justifies any changes, NASS will update the Sept. 30 estimates in the Nov. 8 Crop Production report.”

The U.S.D.A. estimated the production of spring wheat other than durum at 599,990,000 bus, up 3,330,000 bus from the August projection but down 23,242,000 bus, or 4%, from 623,232,000 bus in 2018. The U.S.D.A. estimated the other-spring wheat harvested area at 12,435,000 acres, down 4% from 2018. The average yield was 48.3 bus per acre, which tied with the 2018 yield as the record high.

The U.S.D.A. estimated hard red spring wheat production in 2019 at 558,901,000 bus, down 6,852,000 bus from the August forecast and down 28,106,000 bus, or 5%, from 587,007,000 bus in 2018. The recent five-year average hard red spring wheat outturn was 517 million bus.

The hard white spring wheat crop was estimated at 11,960,000 bus, down 683,000 bus from the August outlook and down 1,550,000 bus from 13,510,000 bus in 2018. The soft white spring wheat crop was estimated at 29,129,000 bus, up 10,865,000 bus from August and up 6,414,000 bus, or 28%, from 22,715,000 bus a year ago.

The U.S.D.A. estimated durum production in 2019 at 57,741,000 bus, up 415,000 bus from August but down 20,244,000 bus, or 26%, from 77,985,000 bus in 2018. The durum harvested area was estimated at 1,290,000 acres, down 35% from last year, but average yield set a record high at 44.8 bus per acre.

The U.S.D.A. estimated 2019 winter wheat production at 1,304,003,000 bus, down 22,220,000 bus from the August estimate but up 120,064,000 bus, or 10%, from 1,183,939,000 bus in 2018. Harvested area was estimated at a record low 24,327,000 acres, down 415,000 acres from 24,742,000 acres in 2018. The U.S.D.A. noted area harvested for grain was 1% larger than a year ago in the hard red winter wheat states but was 16% smaller in the soft red winter wheat states. Average winter wheat yield was estimated at 53.6 bus per acre compared with 47.9 bus per acre a year ago.

Hard red winter wheat production in 2019 was estimated at 833,181,000 bus, down 6,653,000 bus from the August estimate but up 170,932,000 bus, or 26%, from 662,249,000 bus in 2018.  It was the largest hard red winter wheat outturn since 1,082 million bus in 2016 and compared with 813 million bus as the five-year average production.

The U.S.D.A. estimated soft red winter wheat production at 239,166,000 bus, down 18,323,000 bus from August and down 46,392,000 bus, or 16%, from 285,558,000 bus last year. It was the smallest soft red winter wheat crop since 219 million bus in 2010 and compared with 348 million bus as the recent five-year average.

The soft white winter wheat crop was estimated at 211,702,000 bus, up 7,375,000 bus from the August estimate but down 5,083,000 bus, or 2%, from 216,785,000 bus in 2018. The hard white winter wheat crop was estimated at 19,954,000 bus, down 4,619,000 bus from August but up 607,000 bus from the 2018 outturn.