Strategie Grains Trims EU Wheat Area Outlook, Raises Barley after Wet Spell
(Reuters) – Strategie Grains has lowered its estimate of the soft wheat area for next year’s harvest in the European Union after heavy rain disrupted field work in western EU countries.
In a monthly report, the French analyst firm pegged the EU’s soft wheat area for 2020 at 23.7 million hectares, down about 200,000 hectares from its initial outlook in October and now below an estimated 23.8 million hectares harvested this year.
“This reduction essentially stems from the wet weather delays to winter cereal drillings in the UK and to a lesser extent France, with farmers unable to plant in waterlogged fields,” it said.
In its first sowing outlook last month, Strategie Grains had projected a stable wheat area, a 3% decline for winter barley, a 4% drop in spring barley and a 2% increase for grain maize.
Other analysts have also pointed to heavy rain in the past month as a risk to sowing of wheat and barley ahead of winter.
Strategie Grains said soggy conditions had similarly reduced expectations for winter barley sowing in Britain and France.
However, it raised its overall projection for the EU’s barley area next year, citing successful winter barley sowing in Germany and the prospect of some farmers shifting from winter barley to spring barley in Britain and France.
Its outlook for the total EU barley area in 2020 was increased by about 200,000 hectares to 12.0 million, although that would still be below an estimated 12.2 million this year.
Strategie Grains reduced marginally its outlook for the 2020 area of grain maize but continued to expect a 2% increase compared with this year to about 8.8 million hectares.
In tentative first production estimates for 2020 based on long-term yield trends, the firm said soft wheat production could reach 142.3 million tonnes, compared with 145.5 million this year.
EU barley production would total 59.6 million tonnes, against 61.6 million this year, while grain maize output would reach 64.8 million tonnes compared with 63.5 million expected in the ongoing 2019 harvest, it said.
