Soybeans Extend Decline Amid Signs of Rebounding U.S. Supply

(Bloomberg) – Soybeans fell for a second day in Chicago after a government report yesterday showed U.S. production may be larger than analysts expected. Corn and wheat were little changed.

U.S. soybean output may be a record 3.39 billion bushels from the 2013-14 harvest that starts Sept. 1, unchanged from last month’s forecast and 12 percent larger than the previous season when crops were hurt by drought, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said yesterday. Analysts in a Bloomberg survey expected the USDA to cut its forecast to 3.371 billion bushels as rain delayed planting. Inventories may more than double from a year earlier to 265 million bushels, the USDA said.

“Forecasts for a significant build in 2013-14 U.S. soybean carryout could put November soybean futures in a downtrend,”Dan Cekander, the director of grain market analysis at Newedge USA LLC, said in an e-mailed report. “Forecasts for five to six days of drier weather next week across the Corn Belt could allow increased U.S. soybean planting progress.”

Soybeans for November delivery dropped 0.3 percent to $13.0975 a bushel by 5:46 a.m. on the Chicago Board of Trade, extending yesterday’s 1 percent decline.

Corn for December delivery was little changed at $5.3725 a bushel. The USDA’s forecast for U.S. corn production was larger than analysts expected at 14.005 billion bushels, which will help stockpiles more than double from a year earlier to 1.95 billion bushels.

Wheat for July delivery was little changed at $6.8325 a bushel in Chicago. In Paris, milling wheat for November delivery rose 0.6 percent to 198.75 euros ($265) a metric ton on NYSE Liffe. Earlier, it fell as much as 1 percent to 195.50 euros, the lowest for a most-active contract since May 2012.

Wheat Production

U.S. wheat output was forecast at 2.08 billion bushels, up from last month’s prediction of 2.057 billion, the USDA said in a report yesterday. While drought damage late last year will reduce the local harvest, global output will rise 6.1 percent.

“The USDA expressed confidence and optimism in the upcoming crops for all three grains,” Joyce Liu, an analyst at Phillip Futures Pte, said by phone from Singapore today. “They didn’t do any downward adjustments or their downward adjustments were minor and way less than market expectations.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Whitney McFerron in London at wmcferron1@bloomberg.net; Ranjeetha Pakiam in Kuala Lumpur at rpakiam@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Claudia Carpenter at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net