Soybean Rally Possible on Wet Harvest, Delayed Maturity

(AgWeb) – Soybean prices in the U.S. could rise if wet weather or delayed plant maturity push harvest back, or if South American producers decide to leave total soybean acreage relatively unchanged. That’s according to DuWayne Bosse of Bolt Marketing.

“We already know the whole world is waiting for [U.S.] soybeans right now,” Bosse tells “AgDay” host Clinton Griffiths. “If harvest is delayed two to three weeks, you’ll get a spark in soybean prices right now. Talking to different brokers in each state, which we do every Monday morning, I’ve got to tell you, everyone other than me in the Dakotas said that their soybean crop was probably one to two weeks behind because the ideal cool weather we’ve had has delayed maturity, which also means a big crop, though, too.”

Meanwhile, early planting season began Sept. 15 in Brazil, Bosse says, though meteorologists are recommending they wait until October because of dry soil conditions. As for crop mix, expect soybean acreage to stay flat or just slightly higher and corn acreage to grow its footprint.

“South America will not be increasing the soybean acreage. Maybe 1% [more] in Brazil is what some people think. I don’t even know if they’ll do that,” Bosse says. “Their costs are up about 8% to plant it. But the big thing is that their corn prices are up so high right now. They’re buying the corn acres and so is Argentina. Remember in Argentina, they’re not going to have the corn export tax this year. So we already know their corn acres are going to increase. And that’s going to come to the expense of soybeans. What we learned this last year in soybeans is we need Argentina, Brazil and the U.S. to all have record soybean crops. Otherwise, soybean prices are going to go ballistic because the demand does keep growing from China.”