Soybean Progress Seen Lagging Recent Years Pace in Illinois, Iowa

August 22nd, 2013

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Category: Oilseeds

(Wall Street Journal) – Soybean development here in the nation’s largest producers of the crop continues to lag behind recent years’ pace, according to an average of crop surveys collected in Illinois and western Iowa by scouts on an annual tour through the Midwest.

Soybeans in Illinois were counted at 1115.97 pods in a three foot square according to 201 field samples collected by Pro Farmer’s crop tour. The three-year average for the state, which includes last summer’s historic drought, is 1149.47 pods.

Soybeans across three regions of Iowa were seen at 965.18 pods in a three foot square for the western counties of Iowa, based on 140 samples, which is down sharply from the three year average from this section of the state, at 1185.8 pods.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture pegged this year’s soybean production for Illinois at 439.45 million bushels and Iowa at 433.78 million. Pro Farmer does not extrapolate current counts of soybean pods seen in fields to the full year’s yield, as many factors could affect the health and quality of soybean plants before the end of the growing season, including the weather.

Corn yields in Iowa, meanwhile, averaged 168.6 bushels per acre, up from the three year average of 160.74, and higher than the USDA’s prediction for the entire state, at 163.0 bushels/acre.

In Illinois, corn yields were counted at 170.48 bushels per acre, significantly higher than the three-year average for the state at 148.04.

“The beans need a drink,” said Mike Berdo, a producer in Washington, Iowa on the Pro Farmer tour.

Other crop scouts added that although corn fields were producing high ear counts, some appeared immature, or stressed by lack of moisture.

“It’s too late in the game for some of that corn. It’s the bottom of the ninth already,” Mr. Berdo added.

“It’s amazing the difference between 5 feet away from the fields and 30 feet in it,” said Tom Elgin, a commodities trader with DC Energy in Vienna, Virginia. “Conditions are undoubtedly dry, but [corn] yields in at least some of the fields was better than I thought.”

Corn and soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade extended a recent rally Wednesday, lifted by a threat to Midwest crops from hot, dry weather forecasts.

Forecasts call for limited rain in the Midwest over the next week or more, leaving traders worried about dry soil conditions in parts of Iowa, Illinois and Missouri. Temperatures are also expected to be high for the next two weeks, which could further dry out soils.

Traders are particularly worried about the unfavorable weather since soy crops are going through key stages of growth, including setting pods and filling them out with beans. Most of the U.S. corn crop has already completed its most crucial stage, pollination, but inclement weather still threatens to reduce crop yields.

After the worst U.S. drought in sixty years depleted inventories of both crops, industry experts said they’re closely watching new estimates for a harvest that could break historic records for corn production, and come in just below all-time highs for soybean yields.

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