(Agrimoney) – Soybean futures rallied some 3%, ahead of Friday’s supply and demand estimates from the US Department of Agriculture, which are seen as cutting production expectations.
Traders are expecting the USDA to trim production forecasts for soy, as well as corn, following soggy weather in the US Midwest.
The market forecast is for the USDA estimate for domestic 2014-15 soybean production to be trimmed to 3.776bn bushels, from forecasts of 3.850m bushels last month, after weeks of heavy rain across the Midwest.
‘Drowned out fields’
And the rains haven’t abated just yet. Last night saw wet weather across Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Western Ohio, and it is heading west across the Corn Belt.
In a five-day forecast for the Midwest, MDA Weather Services said that “continued rains across south-western, central, and eastern areas through Saturday will maintain stress on corn and soybeans”.
Kyle Tapley of MDA said the rains were “certainly not favourable for crops and more rainfall is expected over the next several days.
“The relentless rainfall will continue to stress the crops in these areas, as the rains lead to nitrogen leaching, drowned out fields, and increased disease risk”.
That helped offset some more positive news on the supply side, with Conab lifting its forecast for Brazilian output in 2014-15 to 96.22m tonnes.
Chinese stocks find floor
There was also a ray of sunshine for bulls from China, which is a huge driver of soybean demand.
The Chinese stock market seems to have found some kind of floor, at least for the time being, recovering over 6% on Thursday, offering some reassurance over the country’s economic prospects as a whole.
That offset some negative US demand news, with weekly export sales data released by the USDA hardly supportive (if within the range of market expectations) at 41,400 tonnes for old crop, and a modest 201,100 tonnes for 2015-16.
Cumulative new crop soybean sales remain 45% below last year’s, lagging by 5.4m tonnes, and Chinese purchases are 50% behind last year’s.
“New crop soybean sales continue to fall way behind the pace of previous years,” said Joe Lardy at CHS Hedging.
Still, August soybeans finished up 2.9% up at $10.26 ¼ a bushel, while new crop November soybeans finished up 2.7% at $10.15 ¾ a bushel.
‘Irreversible damage’
Corn futures benefited from much the same weather worries as soybeans, although price gains were lower, at 0.8% to $4.28 ½ a bushel for the September contract, and a 0.9% rise to $4.39 a bushel for the best-traded, new crop December lot.
Forecaster Gail Martell said that “corn yields in Illinois are expected to decline following record June flooding causing irreversible damage.
“One thing is for sure, a bumper Illinois corn harvest is not expected this season,” said Ms Martell.
“A sub-standard yield is anticipated from June flooding, perhaps worse than the 2010 yield.”
Safrinha record
But the US export data was weak, for new crop sales at least, coming in at just 149,000 tonnes, below expectations for at least 200,000 tonnes.
Cumulative new crop corn sales are running 24% behind those a year ago, lagging by 1m tonnes.
And the prospect for Brazil’s late season corn crop has been improved again.
The safrinha, or second harvest, was already headed for record levels, and Conab has boosted the outlook again, to 51.55m tonnes, from 49.38 tonnes forecast last month, with this year’s total Brazilian corn harvest at 81.81m tonnes, from 80.21m tonnes last month.
Darrell Holaday of broker Country Futures cast some doubt on the hopes for Friday’s numbers on row crops.
“We really question the assumption that USDA is going to be aggressive lower corn and soybean yield projections” he said.
“This is simply not their history in this report, given the condition reports.”
‘Behind the pace’
Chicago wheat rose through the session, with support from European prices, but fell back to end sideways at $5.78 a bushel for September.
On the bearish side, US wheat export sales, at 345,900 tonnes, were at the lower end of the range expected by investors.
“Wheat exports continue to be less than stellar at the start of the year, coming in on the low side of expectations this week,” CHS’s Joe Lardy said.
“Even though it is early, wheat sales are starting to fall way behind the pace needed.”
Ukraine heat
However, more supportive was a downbeat forecast from farmers’ organisation Copa-Cogeca on expectations for this year’s grain harvest at 296.6m tonnes, undershooting ideas from many other analysts.
Copa-Cogeca pegged the French crop down 1.9m tonnes from last year, at 35.58m tonnes, just days after the French farm ministry predicted a record crop of 37.87m tonnes.
And in Ukraine the agriculture minister teased a cut to the 2015 grain outlook, which had previously been pegged at 60m tonnes.
Hot weather across many areas, as well as rains across central and sougther regions, could reduce both the size and the condition of the harvest.
December Paris wheat closed up 0.5% at E198.25.
‘Bombshell’
Sugar was sharply down today, on technical selling and Wednesday’s bearish crush data from Brazilian cane body Unica.
October raw sugar finished down 3.3%, at 11.90 cents a pound.
The contract has been bouncing off the 10-day moving average, but broke conclusively through that, as well as cracking the 12.15 cents a pound support.
Thomas Kujawa, co-head of softs at Sucden Financial, called the Brazilian data a “thermobaric bombshell.
“In summary the dollar/real exchange rate is going the way of sugar producers, the harvest is going well for the sugar producers, the energy complex is falling hard and the trade are all talking of Thai producer selling above the market,” he said.
“It seems the potential for the upside is limited.”
Cocoa heats up
Cocoa was up, despite market expectations of weak European and North American grind figures next week.
September London cocoa futures settled up 0.8%, at £2,200 a tonne, a four year high, with very thick volumes.
September New York cocoa futures closed up 1.1% at $3,278 a tonne.
Meanwhile, arabica coffee, in rising 0.2% at 125.25 cents a pound for September delivery, failed to re-extend its premium over robusta as comments from the International Coffee Organization implied.
London-traded robusta coffee also gained 0.2%, closing at $1,728 a tonne for September.
