Soy falls, corn set for biggest weekly gain in 3 months

November 2nd, 2012

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Category: Grains, Oilseeds

(Reuters) – U.S. soybeans edged lower on Friday, giving back some gains from the previous two sessions as traders’ appetite for risk in commodity markets ebbed ahead of a U.S. non-farm payrolls report.

Corn fell for a second day but remained on course for its biggest weekly gain in three months, while wheat was firm, supported by rising concerns about tight supplies.

Chicago Board of Trade January soybeans fell 0.58 percent to $15.51 a bushel by 1135 GMT, having closed up 0.74 percent on Thursday.

December corn fell 0.23 percent to $7.49-1/4 a bushel after sliding 0.63 percent in the previous session. Despite the two-day fall, corn is up 1.6 percent for the week, its biggest weekly rise since Aug. 5.

December wheat rose 0.12 percent to $8.69-1/2 a bushel.

“There’s always some squaring of positions ahead of key data, and I think we are seeing some of that today,” Graydon Chong, grains analysts at Rabobank, said.

The U.S. Labor Department will release the October jobs report later in the day. A Reuters poll puts the increase in U.S. jobs at 125,000 in October, up from 114,000 in September, and the jobless rate to tick up to 7.9 percent from a near four-year low of 7.8 percent.

SOUTH AMERICAN CONCERNS

Although soybeans and corn fell, both continued to receive support as wet weather delays planting of South American crops.

An Argentine grain expert said earlier this week the country could lose 20 percent of its projected corn crop and 10 percent of its soy this season as violent storms lash the Pampas, turning prime farmland into unplantable mush.

INTL FCStone said it raised its forecast for U.S. 2012 soybean production to 2.959 billion bushels from 2.849 billion last month. The firm estimated the U.S. soybean yield at 39.1 bushels per acre, up from 38.2 previously.

The brokerage pegged the U.S. corn harvest at 10.881 billion bushels, up slightly from its previous estimate of 10.824 billion, and raised its estimate of the corn yield to 124.0 bushels per acre from 123.9 last month.

RUSSIAN WHEAT FORECASTS CHECKED

Analysts remained concerned that global wheat stocks were extremely tight, with cuts to Russian supply while U.S. and Australian wheat conditions suffered.

Agricultural analysts SovEcon cut their forecast for Russia’s 2012 wheat crop to 37.5 million tonnes, from 38 million previously, to reflect weak harvest data, SovEcon’s chief executive said.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture attache in Argentina revised down its estimate for Argentina’s 2012/13 wheat crop and exports.

In Europe, Paris-based European milling wheat futures <0#BL2:> opened higher in light trade, hesitating between technical selling and bullish signals.

“With private estimates of Russian output once again undercutting those from official sources, corn production outlook declining in Argentina, the lacklustre picture for U.S. winter wheat and continued anticipation of a redefining of tight in U.S. soybean stocks, all indicators these last several days have allowed markets to creep higher,” FC Stone said in a note.

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