Shutdown Delays USMCA Trade Agreement and Release of January WASDE Report

(Hoosier Ag Today) – The government shutdown could stall progress on President Trump’s North American Free Trade Agreement replacement, the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Analysis of the agreement has stopped during the shutdown as the U.S. International Trade Commission, responsible for examining the trade agreement, remains at a standstill. If continued, Politico reports the shutdown could delay release of the report on the economic impact of the new agreement.

The Trade Commission is required to submit the report, which many lawmakers will use to craft their positions on the deal, by March 15th. USMCA was signed by Trump and his counterparts on November 30th, last year. Trump followed a day later with notification that he would withdraw the current NAFTA if lawmakers didn’t move to approve USMCA quickly.

The government shutdown, ending soon or not, is likely to delay the January World Agriculture Supply and Demand report as well. Scheduled for next Friday, January 12th, the World Agricultural Outlook Board needs a full week to release the report, once the government opens. Farm Journal’s AgWeb reports that while most of the information was gathered before the shutdown, analysis of the data remains.

Even if lawmakers were to end the shutdown quickly, the delays are still likely at this point. However, reaching a budget agreement appears to be a tough battle with Democrats taking leadership of the House of Representatives and Republicans rejecting a spending plan by House Democrats before the new Congress began Thursday. Traders worry a prolonged shutdown could end with an excess of data flooding the market, including Department of Agriculture WASDE numbers, export sales data, and updates from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Click below to listen to the HAT Morning Edition podcast where market analyst David Kohli talks about the potential impact a delayed WASDE report could bring to the markets.