Russian Analysts Cut 2019 Wheat Crop Forecasts Again

(Reuters) – SovEcon and IKAR, the leading agriculture consultancies in Moscow, on Monday downgraded their forecast for Russia’s 2019 wheat crop as they continued to assess the negative impact of June’s hot, dry weather.

Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter, has downgraded a number of crop forecasts in recent weeks because of a June heatwave.

“We see that the majority of regions in the European part of the country received 20-50 percent of the normal level of precipitation, with temperatures several degrees above (seasonal norms),” SovEcon said of the weather for the period from late May to early July.

SovEcon could downgrade the forecast further if damage from the hot weather is found to be more significant than seen at present, the consultancy said.

Expected rain in the coming weeks is unlikely to fix the damage for winter grains but could improve the condition of spring grains, it added.

SovEcon’s forecast for Russia’s 2019 wheat crop was cut to 76.6 million tonnes from the previously expected 82.2 million tonnes, it said. Its forecast for the 2019 grain crop was reduced to 121.9 million tonnes from 127.1 million tonnes.

Its preliminary forecast for wheat exports for the new 2019/20 marketing season, which started on July 1, was cut to 33 million tonnes from 37.6 million tonnes.

IKAR said in a separate note on Monday that its 2019 wheat output forecast has been lowered to 78.5 million tonnes from 79.3 million tonnes.