(Wall Street Journal) – Rising temperatures in coming decades could sharply reduce U.S. crop production and reshape the nation’s agriculture industry, according to a new climate-change analysis.
Parts of Midwestern states that account for much of the country’s corn and soybean output may surrender nearly a quarter of their crops as temperatures climb over the next five to 25 years, according to the report from the Risky Business Project. The group was created by Henry Paulson, a U.S. Treasury secretary under President George W. Bush, and hedge-fund billionaire Tom Steyer, who is a major Democratic donor.
Midwestern cities such as Chicago, St. Louis and Kansas City also face possible slowdowns in manufacturing and construction due to deeper summer heat waves and extreme weather events striking more often, the group said.
If the U.S. agricultural industry doesn’t plan and adapt, the potential for smaller crops could diminish the country’s role in supplying food to other nations, said Gregory Page, executive chairman of Cargill Inc., one of the world’s largest agricultural companies, and a Risky Business committee member. Midwest farmers could respond by changing crops, planting seeds suited to hotter environments and expanding their growing seasons, the report said.
“We need to be sure we don’t become the generation that didn’t do enough to prepare for the future,” Mr. Page said in an interview. He and Mr. Paulson plan to present the report, which focuses on the U.S. Midwest, at a meeting in Minneapolis Friday
The report is the latest analysis by Risky Business, which was formed as a bipartisan effort to highlight the economic hazards posed by the changing global climate. Last June the group unveiled a study warning of increased coastal damage from hurricanes and electrical grids straining under increased air-conditioner use, among other problems stemming from warmer temperatures.
Friday’s report outlines the potential for sweeping changes in the U.S. Farm Belt, which produces about 65% of the country’s corn and soybeans and a large portion of the domestic wheat crop. The Midwest also has about one-third of U.S. manufacturing operations, according to the group.
The Midwest could cede 11% to 69% of its corn and wheat output by 2100 if temperatures continue to rise on their current path and farmers don’t find ways to adapt, the report said. Summers in Missouri could grow as hot as Arizona’s are now., posing severe challenges for raising heat-sensitive crops like corn, a $2 billion crop for the state.Cargill is reaching out to farmers to help prepare them for warmer winters and hotter summers. Company officials discuss the issue with farmers individually and at high-level meetings, such as one in November that gathered officials from trade groups for crop, livestock and poultry producers, Mr. Page said.
Farmers in northern Midwest states may see benefits from the weather shift, according to the report, including the potential to grow two crops a year instead of one and higher soybean yields. That could partly offset the negative impact on crops in southern portions of the Midwest.
