(Agrimoney) – Rains are poised to prevent a catch-up in the US corn and soybean harvest, as it enters a region which could interrupt the flow of outstanding yield reports, and as chances of frost are rising again.
The US Midwest is poised for widespread rains, of 85-90% coverage, bringing up to 1.5 inches of precipitation, spreading eastwards from today into Friday, broker reports said.
While not a serious threat to harvesting, the “upturn in rains… will slow crop maturation and fieldwork once again,” said Don Keeney at weather service MDA, with the slow harvest raising the proportion of crops in the field with the return of frost imminent.
Freezing temperatures are expected for some northern Midwest areas, such as northern Minnesota and eastern North Dakota, by the weekend, with a “much more widespread frost” forecast for late next week, down through the central Corn Belt into parts of Ohio.
“Crops should be too far advanced to see any damage from the frost, however,” Mr Keeney said.
‘Drying down slowly’
The forecasts bode ill for growers proving able to catch-up on harvesting which, as of Sunday, was 12% complete for their corn compared with a typical 23%, according to the US Department of Agriculture.
For soybeans, harvest progress had reached 10%, behind the average of 17%.
The slow progress reflects in part the tardy development of crops, a downside of the cool summer temperatures which favoured corn pollination.
The USDA rated 60% of US corn mature, 10 points below the normal proportion.
However, even in some areas where corn was ahead on its development, notably in Illinois, harvesting was behind, with too much crop moisture seen as hampering progress.
“Corn especially is drying down slowly,” broker RJ O’Brien said, following the results of field research, and noting the prospect of a “slowing harvest this week”.
Into Iowa
The comments come as the US harvest is viewed as about to ramp up in the top corn and soybean producing state, Iowa, which is one, with Minnesota, from which investors are less certain of the type of bumper yield reports which have issued from more southerly areas.
“Row crop markets sense that yield updates will be more variable in come days as harvest expands across Iowa, where growing conditions were more variable,” said Richard Feltes at RJ O’Brien.
In Iowa, Mike Mawdsley at broker Market 1 said he had heard a “few reports” from the west of the state, “where northern leaf blight is an issue”, of yields ranging from 120-170 bushels per acre.
“Not everyone is seeing 250+ bushels per acre,” he said, referring to the yield reports issuing from some other states.
“But, will those areas where yields are off a bit be enough to make much of a difference” in terms of depressing the national average.
“We should start hearing more and more reports out of Iowa and Minnesota as we progress through the week.”
Just 2% of Iowa corn was harvested as of Sunday, compared with a typical 15%. The state’s growers had 3% of soybeans in the barn compared with an average of 17%.
