(Agrimoney) – US rains have further work to do in improving the drought-hit winter wheat crop, and may be needed to support growth in spring wheat too, after spurring an unusually rapid pace of sowings.
The condition of US winter wheat stabilised last week, at 42% rated “good” or “excellent”, after long-awaited rains hit the key central and southern Plains growing area, US Department of Agriculture data showed.
However, the rating, while well above the 34% a year ago, fell short of the 44% figure that investors had expected.
Although ratings improved in most states, they signally fell in Kansas, the top wheat producing state, by 2 points to 24%, and in South Dakota and Texas too, spurring talk that rainfall had not been as widespread as some investors thought.
‘Rains missed key growing areas’
“Kansas conditions actually fell,” supporting ideas that “the rains missed key growing areas of hard red winter wheat country”, said Mike Zuzolo at Global Commodity Analytics.
USDA crop scouts in Kansas said that “the lack of moisture was a concern in a number of counties”, adding that only “light precipitation”, of up to 0.5 inches, was reported in eastern Kansas, “while the west remained dry”.
In Texas, where the proportion of wheat rated good or excellent fell by 1 point to 51%, “a lack of moisture combined with warm temperature stressed wheat in Northern High Plains”.
And in South Dakota, where the winter wheat rating fell by 1 point to 25%, USDA scouts noted that farms received only “light rainfall” last week, meaning that “soil moisture conditions remained dry across most of the state”.
‘Hasn’t had enough time’
However, other investors said that the boost from rainfall would take longer than one week to show through fully in crop ratings.
“The wheat crop hasn’t had enough time to show the benefits of rains late last week,” said Brian Henry at Minneapolis-based broker Benson Quinn Commodities.
Some commentators pointed to expectations of further rainfall.
“Moisture prospects for next week again favour Kansas, Oklahoma, and the Texas Cross Timbers and Blacklands,” said Mark Welch at Texas A&M University.
At Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Tobin Gorey said: “Weather forecasters continue to see further useful rain looking out a week so worries about US wheat are unlikely to return soon.”
‘Not good’
However, there are for spring wheat some mounting concerns over the dryness further north, in the likes of South Dakota.
The conditions are spurring rapid sowings, with farmers having 36% of their crop planted as of Sunday, nearly twice the typical 19% by that time.
But Mr Zuzolo said that “I have to think that this advanced planting is not good for the wheat in the ground”.
Talk with contacts “suggested to me that, yes, it’s planted, but it’s not emerged because soils are too dry”, and the weather expected for the north, the main US spring wheat growing area, “is going to hurt the prospects of even emergence in this year’s crop”.
‘In need of good rains’
At broker Futures International, Terry Reilly said that the “northern Great Plains are still in need of good rains”, but were not set for significant precipitation.
“The northern Great Plains won’t be completely dry, but the coverage amounts through early May will not exceed 40%,” he said.
At Texas A&M University, Dr Welch said that “the Seasonal Drought Outlook indicates conditions may get drier in the north central states”.
