Pacific rains allay El Nino fears – for now

(Agrimoney) – Is El Nino losing its touch?

The weather pattern as measured by its vital signs is here, and growing, according to official meteorologists in Australia, Japan and the US.

Last week the Australian Bureau of Meteorology forecast sea temperatures “to remain above El Niño thresholds for the remainder of the year”.

But as measured by its impact, it has been surprisingly absent on what is typically one of its main battlegrounds, the eastern Pacific, where it typically causes dryness in countries from India to Australia.

A spate of much needed rains across the Eastern Pacific have quashed immediate dryness concerns in some key agricultural regions.

Monsoon fears ‘misplaced’

Indeed, official Indian data on Thursday showed that the country’s monsoon, which has been expected to produce rainfall 12% below average levels, has in fact proved wetter than the norm, by 11% so far.

“So far rains are a little more than normal,” Junior Minister for Earth Sciences YS Chowdary said, following comments from Finance Minister Arun Jaitley that talk of a deficient monsoon “appears to be misplaced”.

The promising start to the monsoon is good news for growers of some of India’s key crops, including cotton, sugar and grains.

Vietnam fears ease

Meanwhile in South East Asia, Vietnam’s coffee growing areas, where El Nino has a history of causing dryness, are seeing a start to the rainy season, albeit up to two weeks late in some areas.

And in Australia, where El Nino typically brings dryness to the eastern grains belt, fears for crops have receded with a return of rains.

“Australia’s eastern grain regions received further good rainfall over the past day to significantly boost soil moisture,” said Tobin Gorey at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

“Weather forecasters expect more rainfall over the next day or so in the east and south,” he added, with some rain also expected for the west of the country.

‘One-off events’

But Don Keeney of MDA weather services noted that these “one off events did not mean that El Nino wouldn’t weigh on production this year.

“They’re certainly anomalies,” he told Agrimoney.com, “and they’re not what would be expected”.

Mr Keeney pointed to rising sea surface temperatures in the mid-Pacific as signs that the El Nino effect was underway, even if its specific effects were unclear, adding that drier weather forecast to be on the way for Australia and across South East Asia.