Milder, but a Wetter Pattern Ahead on the Plains

March 19th, 2019

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Category: Grains

(The News-Gazette) – Across the Corn Belt, moderate to major flooding is occurring in several dozen upper Midwestern communities, generally stretching from southeastern South Dakota and eastern Nebraska eastward into southern Wisconsin and northern and western Illinois. Current conditions—cool, dry weather—favor allowing floodwaters to proceed downstream without further complications.

On the Plains, cool, dry weather prevails. However, extensive lowland flooding persists in the middle Missouri Valley. On March 16, the Missouri River crested at record-high levels, topping high-water marks from June 2011 by 1 to 4 feet, along the Nebraska-Iowa border between Plattsmouth and Brownville, Nebraska.

In the South, showers are limited to southern sections of Florida and Texas. Elsewhere, cool, dry weather prevails. Very high flows continue in the lower Mississippi Valley; for example, the Mississippi River at Baton Rouge, Louisiana, is currently more than 9 feet above flood stage and at the highest level since May 2011.

In the West, mild weather in the Pacific Coast States contrasts with lingering cool conditions in the central and southern Rockies. Low-elevation snow has begun to melt in the Northwest, leading to some minor river rises.

A relatively quiet weather pattern will continue during the next several days, although a late-week storm system could produce light to moderately heavy precipitation from California to the central and southern Plains. Five-day precipitation totals could total an inch or more in some locations from northern and central California to the southern High Plains. Southern Florida will experience locally heavy showers early in the week, but little or no precipitation will occur during the next 5 days across the remainder of the Southeast and from the northern Rockies into the upper Midwest. However, warmer weather across the North may melt some of the remaining snow, leading to an increase in runoff-related flooding.

Looking ahead, the 6- to 10-day outlook calls for the likelihood of warmer-than-normal weather across much of the eastern half of the U.S., while near- or below-normal temperatures will prevail in New England and the West. Meanwhile, wetter-than-normal conditions will dominate areas from the Pacific Coast to the Mississippi River, while below-normal precipitation should be limited to the middle and northern Atlantic States.

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