Ivory Coast seen missing cocoa output target on poor mid-crop

(Reuters) – Ivory Coast’s cocoa output is unlikely to rebound before the end of the mid-crop, meaning 2015/16 production in the world’s top grower is likely to fall short of a government forecast, exporters and farmers said.

The West African country’s marketing board, the Coffee and Cocoa Council, has forecast production for the 2015/16 season which ends in September at 1.6 million tonnes, down from a record of nearly 1.8 million tonnes last year.

“To be realistic, we are expecting a drop of between 220,000 and 250,000 tonnes for this season, so a total harvest below 1.6 million tonnes,” said the director of an Abidjan-based exporter.

Three other exporters or analysts gave expected production ranging from 200,000 to 250,000 tonnes lower than in 2014/15.

They blamed poor weather, including the worst Harmattan winds in three decades, for the drop. The hot, dry winds from the Sahara were followed a lack of rain between January and April, a critical period in the development of mid-crop cocoa which is harvested from April to September.

Port arrivals were already lagging last season’s levels by more than 130,000 tonnes at the end of May and the International Cocoa Organization raised its 2015/16 global cocoa deficit forecast to 180,000 tonnes last month from 113,000 tonnes.

“The season’s finished for us. If we don’t have anything on the plantations right now, it’s not in August or September that we’ll have mid-crop cocoa,” said Alassane Coulibaly, who farms eight hectares near Soubre in the heart of the western cocoa belt. “We don’t expect anything more from this harvest.”

Farmers in the Meagui, Yabayo, Gabeadji and Duekoue regions – some of Ivory Coast’s most productive plantation land – expressed similar pessimism for the remainder of the mid-crop despite a return of rains from last month.

A Reuters reporter travelling in the area found few plantations with significant numbers of flowers, or small pods known as cherelles, on their trees.

“Look for yourself. My plantation is empty. There are no flowers, no pods even though I harvested six tonnes last year,” said Firmin Soro, who owns a 10 hectare plantation in Bangolo.

Some farmers and exporters said the recent rains, far from improving the situation, may in fact harm output in the early stages of next season which opens in October.

Flowers and cherelles that would have developed into cocoa for next season were stripped from the trees by heavy downpours.

“In four months we start next season’s harvest, but we have no flowers or cherelles,” said Simon Ilboudo, who farms 16 hectares of cocoa in Meagui. “Now is when we should start to see what will be next season’s cocoa. But it is late.”