Ivory Coast Cocoa Farmers Say Outlook Good If Harmattan Mild

(Reuters) – Cocoa farmers in Ivory Coast say the outlook for the 2016-17 season is good but they are concerned that a repeat of last season’s severe dry Harmattan wind could weaken production.

The season began on Sept. 28 and should peak later than usual due to lower pre-season rainfall. As a result, arrivals of beans to ports at San Pedro and Abidjan will likely peak at the end of November and early December, farmers and buyers said.

“For now, it’s difficult to say that the harvest will be good or not because nobody knows what the weather has in store for us but we remain hopeful that things will be good,” said Ousmane Kindo, who farms eight hectares at Guiglo.

Normally, the high point for arrivals is at the start of November until December, before falling gradually through January and February.

However, a severe Harmattan, the dry, dusty wind that blows from the Sahara each year from around November to March, impeded overall production last year and a repeat this season could have a similar effect, they said.

“Our fear, our worry, is that the Harmattan this year will be like in 2015. If it’s the same thing production will be bad. The flowers will die and the pods won’t have time to become mature,” said Guillaume N’Goran Kouassi, a farmer in Duekoue.

The West African country is the world’s top producer but port arrivals in the just-ended season stood at 1,565,000 tonnes of beans, down 12 percent from the previous season’s record in part due to the Harmattan.

The forecast for this season is similar to last season’s but meteorologists have yet to provide a forecast for the Harmattan.

“The harvest is just a bit delayed this year because of the delayed rains but … we could have a good season,” said Pierre Kouassi Kouame, who farms six hectares at Divo.

Farmers said they expected the first three months of the harvest to be slower than usual given the state of trees but the weather in the coming weeks will determine its size.

Ali Keita, a farmer in Soubre, said pods are still green so the main harvest would be in late November and early December.

Cocoa pods, flowers and beans hung in abundance, watered by almost daily showers, suggesting a possible strong harvest, according to a Reuters reporter who toured growing areas.

“All seems to be going in the right direction but it could change … We will know more after December if the Harmattan is strong and dry,” said an international export director.

“Everything depends on the climate between December and January but at worst we should have the same level of production as last season,” the exporter said.