(Agriculture.com) – Illinois’s corn crop is forecast to come in more than 14% lower than last year, in line with the most recent federal projections, according to an average of survey results collected by scouts on a closely watched crop tour.
In Illinois, corn yields were estimated Wednesday at 171.64 bushels an acre, down from the 200 bushels an acre produced for last year, as reported by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The projection for this year is above the state’s three-year average of 163.01, and roughly equal to the USDA’s Aug. 1 forecast for the state, which estimated yields at 172.0 bushels an acre.
Projections are based on data collected by participants on the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour, who annually spread out across farms in the Midwest to take stock of corn and soybean fields.
At this time last year, crop tour participants had pegged Illinois’ corn crop at 196.96 bushels an acre.
Soybeans in Illinois are expected to come in at 1,190.47 pods per 3-foot square, also above the state’s three-year average of 1,119.73, but 8.4% lower than the crop tour’s 2014 average of 1,299.17 pods.
Pro Farmer doesn’t forecast soybean yields for the 2014-15 crop year beginning Sept. 1, as multiple factors can affect the quality of the plants before the end of the growing season, including weather. August is a crucial month for setting soybean pods and filling them with beans.
Although estimates for Illinois’s crops fall short of last year’s figures, field scouts on Wednesday reported far hardier corn and soybean crops compared with those surveyed earlier in the week in Ohio and Indiana.
“We saw much better crops today,” said Brian Grete, director of the eastern leg of the crop tour, adding that corn stalks in western Illinois were taller, more uniform and visibly healthier than those observed further east. “The corn looked night and day from what we saw in the last few days.”
Recent federal forecasts for corn and soybean production this year came in sharply higher than analysts had anticipated, surprising market watchers who had bet that heavy rains in parts of the eastern Midwest this summer would lead to smaller crops. The USDA earlier this month pegged the nation’s corn crop at 13.7 billion bushels, which, if realized, would be the third-largest in U.S. history after the record harvests of the past two years.
The government predicted U.S. soybean production will total 3.92 billion bushels, also below last year’s record crop, but well above what analysts had anticipated.
Soybean futures sank to a nearly six-year low on Wednesday, pressured by beneficial rains in the U.S. Farm Belt and concerns over foreign demand for U.S. supplies of the crop. Corn prices swung higher, buoyed in part by earlier reports of dismal-looking crops. Tour participants on Tuesday said Indiana’s grain crop had been stunted by excess moisture early in June.
Traders and investors are closely monitoring data released by tour organizers to judge whether the USDA’s unexpectedly large projections for this year’s crops are likely to be fulfilled.
