Grains-Wheat Bounces off 1-Month Low, China Talks Awaited

February 27th, 2019


Category: Grains

( – U.S. wheat prices rose on Wednesday, rebounding on bargain-buying from a 10-month low touched the day before, while soybeans were little changed.

“Wheat is receiving some bargain-buying support after its fall of around 10 percent since early February,” said Michael Magdovitz, senior agriculture commodities analyst at Rabobank.

“Soybeans and corn are drifting as the market awaits more details about the U.S./China trade talks.”

Chicago Board of Trade most active wheat futures were up 1.0 percent at $4.73-1/4 a bushel at 1157 GMT. Wheat fell about 1 percent on Monday, touching its lowest since April 17 on disappointing U.S. wheat exports.

Corn rose 0.4 percent to $3.77-1/2 a bushel after falling over 1 percent on Tuesday. Soybeans were unchanged at $9.17 a bushel after falling some 0.8 percent on Tuesday.

The Chicago market has been hoping for a transfer of export business to the United States after heavy sales from the Black Sea. But Russia and the EU are continuing to have strong sales in world wheat markets.

Russia said on Wednesday it plans no new grain export restrictions.

“Wheat may be regarded by some as a buying opportunity at current low levels,” Magdovitz said. “There is still a long time before the Northern Hemisphere harvest and a lot of weather risk, which could influence markets strongly in coming months.”

“But overall, the background factor remains that U.S. wheat prices will have to fall to more competitive levels if the U.S. wants to win more export business against Russia and also France, which has lower ocean shipping costs to African and Middle East export markets.”

Dry weather for about six months on Australia’s east coast may curb wheat crop yields for a third straight year in the major exporter, a weather forecaster said.

“Wheat prices have not profited so far from the possibility that the next crop in Australia will also suffer as a result of the drought,” Commerzbank said.

Soybean traders are looking for news on the talks to end the U.S.-China trade war. U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday said he was optimistic a final deal could be reached.

“Soybean markets are awaiting more details about the next stage of talks in the U.S./China trade war and farmers have recently taken profits ahead of plantings,” Magdovitz said.

“There were also reports that China had pledged to buy 10 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans. The market is still awaiting for signs that purchases have actually been made.”

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