Grains Try to End Week on a High Note

August 19th, 2016

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Category: Grains

Sheaf of wheat ears on wooden table(Inside Futures)Grain markets are lower on position evening ahead of the weekend. Crude oil is slightly lower ahead of this afternoon’s rig count report. Allendale’s “Annual Nationwide Producer Yield Survey” is under way and will run through August 26th. We need your help, go to the SURVEY. It has been one of the most accurate, due to farmers knowing their farm better than anyone else. The results of the survey will be released on August 31st.

US Export Sales yesterday had total soybean sales at1,775,822 metric tonnes (177,895 old + 1,597,927 new). That was within the 1,600,000 – 2,100,000 trade expectation and considered neutral. New crop soybean export sales now total 564 million bushels as of August 11. This is right on the five year average of 555 million by this date.

Corn export sales totaled 1,210,161 metric tonnes (167,448 old + 1,042,713 new). This was within the 1,050,000 – 1,550,000 trade expectation and also considered neutral. Current new crop corn sales, as of August 11, total 398 million bushels. That is moderately over the 328 million five year average.

Wheat sales totaled 489,534 metric tonnes in yesterday’s report(all current crop) That was within the 400,000 – 600,000 trade expectation. We have now sold 411 million bushels so far, but the current sales pace is about 8% behind the five-year average.

China’s corn auction resulted in the sales of 526,667 tonnes overnight. The corn sold for an average of $245.31 per tonne, and represents 18.8% of the corn offered.

Germany’s grain harvestis forecast to fall 11% to 43.5 million tonnes as widespread rains and lack of sunshine in the major growing areas has been a regular theme, according to the Farmers’ Association.

Russia’s Ag Ministry is proposing a zero wheat tax through July 1, 2017, and plans to purchase up to 1 million tonnes of grain this year.

Demand bullswill watch this morning’s 8:00 AM sales announcements for more Chinese soybean purchases. Some traders believe we are in store formorebig sales announcements.

ProFarmerwill conduct their annual crop tour next week. Expect comments from their tour to be released via social media throughout the week. Full results will be out Thursday.

The Buenos Aires Grains Exchangeestimates the coming fall planting, for the spring/summer 2017 harvest, will run 4.5 million hectares. That would be 25% over last year.

Argentina’s agriculture ministryestimates that farmers will plant 5.19 million hectares of wheat this year, down from their last estimate of 5.25.

CME Groupannounced that margins will be lowered for wheat from $1,400 to now $1,200. The change was effective with yesterday’s close.

Fundswere estimated buyers of 7,000 corn contracts, 1,750 wheat, 500 soymeal, and 2,500 soyoil contracts in yesterday’s trade. They were neutral in soybeans.

Cash Cattle traded yesterday at $118 in Texas. The two previous weeks of $118 and $119 trade were likely the high points in pricing that we’ll see for two or three months.

August Cattle on Feedreport will be released todayat 2:00 PM. Trade estimates are: On feed 101.4%, Placed 100.5% and Marketing’s 99.7%.

Cold Storageis out Monday afternoon. Allendale expects to see a 10.805 million lb decline in pork stocks from the end of June to the end of July. That would be a bit under the five year average decline for July of 11 million lbs. Beef stocks are estimated to decline by 2.122 million lbs. The five year average decline is about 10 million lbs.

The online US cattle auctionsite that debuted this summer is expected to return next month. Traders hope the online auction will bring some transparency to the livestock market.

Dressed beefvalues were mixed with choice down .89 and select up 1.00. The CME Feeder Index is 148.32. Pork cutout values are down .70.

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