Grains-Soybeans Subdued as Market Hangs on China Talks

(Agriculture.com) – Chicago soybean futures eased on Thursday as traders awaited the outcome of trade negotiations between U.S. and Chinese officials to see whether the two sides are moving towards resolving their tariff dispute. The market was also assessing latest Chinese import data, which showed an upturn in January soybean volumes, and harvest prospects in South America after forecast cuts in Brazil and upgrades in Argentina linked to contrasting weather.

Corn also inched down while wheat eased after a four-session rally. Traders were also awaiting direction from U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales figures for the week to Jan. 3, as the agency continues to clear a backlog caused by a U.S. government shutdown.

The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board Of Trade was down 0.3 percent at $9.13-1/2 a bushel by 1255 GMT. CBOT wheat was down 0.8 percent at $5.18 a bushel, and corn edged down 0.2 percent at $3.78. “Soybean prices seem to have settled back into the range trading that has characterised the market since the start of December,” said Tobin Gorey, director of agricultural strategy at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. “We continue to think the bean market has some potential to force itself out of this range. U.S. farmers’ planting choices, and the related U.S.-China trade negotiations, have the potential to create a hefty shift in the market’s collective view about oilseed supply.”

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday trade talks with China were “going along very well”, having a day earlier suggested the possibility of extending a March 1 deadline for a deal. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer started discussions on Thursday with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, the top economic adviser to Chinese President Xi Jinping, after arriving in Beijing.

China, the world’s largest soybean buyer, imported 7.38 million tonnes of soybeans in January, up 29 percent from December, figures from the General Administration of Customs of China showed. The data did not provide a breakdown of suppliers but the volume is expected to include U.S. supplies after China bought several million tonnes from U.S. exporters as part of its truce with Washington. Still, China’s growing reliance on South American soybeans could be reinforced by a strong harvest in the region. Argentina’s next soy crop is expected to reach 52 million tonnes, against 50 million tonnes previously forecast, the Rosario Grains Exchange said on Wednesday. Doubts remain about Brazil’s harvest after forecasters scaled back estimates due to hot, dry conditions, although milder conditions this month could limit losses.

Prices at 1255 GMT Last Change Pct End Ytd Pct Move 2018 Move CBOT wheat 518.00 -4.25 -0.81 503.25 2.93 CBOT corn 378.00 -0.75 -0.20 375.00 0.80 CBOT soy 913.50 -3.00 -0.33 895.00 2.07 Paris wheat Mar 200.25 -1.00 -0.50 203.25 -1.48 Paris maize Mar 175.50 0.25 0.14 180.25 -2.64 Paris rape Feb 367.50 -0.50 -0.14 365.25 0.62 WTI crude oil 54.39 0.49 0.91 45.41 19.78 Euro/dlr 1.13 0.00 0.02 1.1469 -1.76 Most active contracts – Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel, Paris futures in euros per tonne