(Reuters) – When it comes to the global wheat trade, some exporters are thriving this year even amidst record supply and reduced demand, though not all participants are so lucky.
Last year’s record world wheat harvest and the lack of concern for the current wheat crop have slowed the market, but weak currencies have propped up trade for many major wheat exporting nations, excluding the United States based on the strong dollar.
The European Union plus six other countries will make up 85 percent of global wheat trade in 2015/16, but some are having better luck than others. The Black Sea is cementing itself as top wheat exporter, while recent policy changes in Argentina have also tipped the scales in its favor.
France, which exports more than half of the EU’s wheat, had a shaky start to the 2015/16 marketing year though the outlook remains mixed. The United States is undeniably bringing up the rear, as it expects to export the lowest wheat volume since 1971/72.
WINS FOR BLACK SEA, ARGENTINA
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Ukraine and Russia are expected to export 39 million tonnes of wheat in the 2015/16 marketing year, a massive 14 percent increase on the record volume of 2014/15.
Ukraine is surely doing its part. According to the agriculture minister, Ukraine has exported 11.1 million tonnes of wheat since July 1 as compared to 8.7 million tonnes at the same point last year. The agriculture ministry expects that a record 16.5 million tonnes of wheat will be shipped in 2015/16.
The Federal Customs Service of Russia reported that as of Feb. 10, marketing year-to-date wheat exports totaled 17.2 million tonnes, 8 percent down from the same point last year. However, the agriculture minister expects that total 2015/16 wheat exports will grow by 3 percent over last year’s volume.
The drop in Russian shipments can be partially blamed on the wheat export tax, which was introduced last July and increased in October. Also slowing Russian wheat exports is that Turkey, one of the key buyers of Russian wheat, harvested a record wheat crop this year.
A boost in Russian wheat shipments could be in store as a change to the export tax has been rumored in recent weeks. There has been talk of a likely increase to the tax rate based on continued rouble weakening. But on Feb. 11, Russia’s First Deputy Minister of Agriculture suggested the tax rate should be closer to zero, which would further favor Russian wheat.
Even without an adjustment to the Russian export tax, based on the current and expected rate of progress, Ukraine and Russia together are still expected to easily take the title of the world’s top wheat exporter in 2015/16.
Argentina’s export efforts have been aided by recent policy changes. The newly elected administration eliminated both export taxes and quotas on wheat and corn at the end of last year.
As of its February report, USDA expects that shipped Argentine wheat volume in 2015/16 will be the largest in at least three years. However, since the export policy reform came mid-season, Argentine wheat can likely expect greater impacts on both its production and export programs for next season, and beyond.
JURY OUT ON FRANCE
Concern arose in France late last year as year-to-date wheat exports were sharply down from typical levels for Europe’s largest wheat exporting country. However, big volumes in December and January have picked up some of the lost ground.
Wheat exports out of France in December and January were the second largest volume for that period in at least six years. Still, French farm office FranceAgriMer cut exports each month from November to January, which now stand at 18.3 million tonnes.
Despite the recent uptick, overall French wheat shipments are still at a six-year low since the marketing year began on July 1. The recent controversy over the ergot fungus fueled by key buyer Egypt has not helped, as a French shipment was rejected in December for containing above-the-limit levels of the fungus.
Current port activity suggests that just over 500,000 tonnes of soft wheat is scheduled to be loaded at French ports in the middle 10 days of February, with the main recipients being Algeria and Morocco.
If this pace was assumed for the entire month, February could be another huge month for France in terms of wheat export volume, which they really need right now as stock forecasts continue to rise, and another record crop could be harvested this year.
UNITED STATES PULLS THE SHORT STRAW
United States wheat sales are at the lowest levels in more than 4 years, largely owing to the strong dollar. Weekly sales as reported by USDA have been particularly sluggish over the last month, undershooting the trade estimates almost every time.
Even though year-to-date wheat exports (June 1-Jan. 31) are only down 11 percent on the same period last year, accumulated weekly sales volumes since June 1 are down 18 percent on the year, and the gap continues to widen.
USDA is expecting quite a large 2015/16 U.S. wheat carryout, which is currently estimated to be the second largest in 28 years, narrowly behind 2009/10. Though unlike most instances, these large stocks are not the result of prosperous harvests, as recent U.S. wheat crops have been generally average.
The recent problems plaguing U.S. wheat exports were perhaps best illustrated last month when Argentina shipping data revealed that U.S. buyers purchased two cargoes of Argentine wheat instead of buying domestically, since shipping wheat across the equator had actually become more cost effective.
