Fund Buying Could Continue

December 28th, 2016

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Category: Grains, Miscellaneous

where-will-market-go-450x299(Inside Futures) – Grain markets are mixed following yesterday’s sharp fund-led rally. Outside markets are mostly continuing their risk-on theme with crude and equities higher, and gold lower.

Trade volume in yesterday’s session was impressive given the holiday timeframe. March soybeans traded about 126,000 contracts, March corn 117,000, and wheat 66,000 contracts. All of these numbers were above average volumes.

Managed Money Funds were estimated buyers across the board yesterday adding 10,000 corn, 13,500 soybeans, 7,000 wheat, 4,500 soymeal, and 1,500 soyoil contracts. Index fund rebalancing is expected in early to mid-January and could impact our markets.

Price outlooks, trade strategies and more will be released next month for corn, soybeans, wheat, and livestock during our annual Ag Leaders Outlook series. Find out more and get special pricing by calling Zach at 800-262-7538.

Weekly grain export inspections for the week ending 12/22/16 had wheat exports at 520,975 tonnes, corn at 970,506, and soybeans at 1,710,188.

India’s Agriculture Ministry estimates 87% of winter grain planting has been completed. Wheat specifically, is 92% planted. That is 1.4% over the normal rate at this time.

SovEcon lowered its estimate of Russian grain exports down from 39.1 million tonnes to 38.7. They cite the strengthening rouble will likely hinder exports.

Ukraine’s Agriculture Ministry estimates that 83% of Ukraine’s winter grains are rated as good or satisfactory.

Intertek Testing Services estimates December 1 – 25 Malaysian palm oil exports totaled 845,441 tonnes. That would be 5.6% under last month during the same period.

Macro Market shave the MBA Mortgage Index, and the Pending Homes Sales reports to monitor this morning. Traders continue to watch these reports for overall signs of economic strength and stability for their impact on inflation.

Bird Flu headlines continue to circulate in the livestock trade. South Korea has mobilized their army to help with the culling effort. Another 1.6 million birds have been ordered for the latest cull, on top of the 26 million already removed. The country’s bird flu alert is at its highest level ever. China’s XinJiang province has ordered a cull of 55,000 birds after finding infections of 16,000. There have been seven cases of human transmission this winter in the country. An Eastern Indian province has ordered the cull of 2,500 birds. A state in the North of Germany has ordered a 55,000 bird cull. Lastly, a wild swan with bird flu was found in Greece.

Argentina’s Agriculture Ministry reports that January through October beef exports total 193,000 tonnes. That would be a 10% increase over last year in the same period.

Dressed beef values were higher with choice up.27 and select up 3.83. The CME Feeder Index is 132.40. Pork cutout value is up 1.09.

Markets At-A-Glance – 5:30 AM

Mar Corn – 1 1/2

Mar Beans + 2 1/4

Mar Wheat – 2 1/4

Mar Soymeal + 1.70

Mar Soy oil -.08

Mar Dlr +.32

Mar S&P +5.40

Feb Crude +.26

Feb Gold-.30

 

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