(Agrimoney) – Soybeans followed corn in attracting concerns that US farmers might not complete sowings programmes after official data showed seedings falling behind the average rate, with marked shortfalls in some states.
Data overnight from the US Department of Agriculture showed the strong start to the country’s soy sowing season had foundered, with plantings, at 79% complete, 2 points behind the average.
A month before, sowing were, at 31%, 11 points ahead of the typical pace.
The slowdown reflected in particular setbacks in a central Midwest growing belt of Nebraska and, in particular, Kansas and Missouri where heavy rains have slowed fieldwork to a crawl.
Replantings?
In Kansas, better known as the top US wheat-producing state, some north eastern areas “received up to six inches of rain” last week, USDA scouts said, flagging “concerns that some corn may need to be replanted where flooding occurred”.
Kansas farmers, who have typically completed 76% of soybean seedings by now, have managed to get just 31% of their crop in the ground, and with the end looming for the sowings window, as defined by dates when farmers can claim prevent plant insurance.
Deadlines kick in from June 15-30, depending on which area of the state.
‘Low-lying fields were flooded’
In Missouri, “widespread precipitation limited fieldwork across most of the state”, USDA scouts said, with just 2.0 days available for farmers to enter fields last week.
“Reporters across northern and central Missouri noted that low-lying fields were flooded where localised areas received up to 3.00 inches of rain,” the scouts added.
Missouri growers have sown only 30% of their soybeans, compared with an average of 69% by now, with the prevent plant data also approaching on June 15 for some northern areas.
In Nebraska, last week “rainfall of one to two inches was common, with six inches or more reported across portions of the south east”, scouts said.
At 83% completed, Nebraska farmers were a more modest 12% behind the average pace – but with the end of the planting window nearer.
The prevent plant deadline for most of the state kicks in on Wednesday.
‘Risk is mounting’
The late sowings have spurred ideas that farmers may not be able to sow as much area with soybeans as expected by many investors, who have viewed the USDA’s forecast of a record 84.6m acres as an underestimate.
At Benson Quinn Commodities, Brian Henry flagged “some concerns about the inability to get some of the soybeans planted”, and some setbacks further east too.
“The areas receiving the heaviest weekend totals through the eastern Corn Belt will likely struggle getting the tail end of that crop planted in a timely fashion.”
At RJ O’Brien, Richard Feltes said that the “risk is mounting that soy acres may be lost”.
‘Challenges to work through’
The USDA data also showed soybean condition, at 69% rated “good” or “excellent”, falling behind market expectations of a figure of at least 70%, and less than the year-ago figure of 74% too.
Again, the rating, seen as a strong indicator of yield potential, was notably low for Kansas, at 42% and Missouri, at 34%.
However, the Iowa crop, the country’s biggest, was seen as being 80% in good or excellent health.
Meanwhile, the corn crop rating holding at 74%, against expectations for a small improvement, and a little below the year-ago figure of 75%, while cotton plantings, at 81% finished, were 8 points behind the average pace.
The USDA report “reinforces the notion that row crops have challenges to work through short term”, Mr Feltes said.
‘Hinder final planting operations’
Louis Rose at the Rose Report raised doubts over the pace of US cotton sowings improving, with “rain and storms are expected over cotton producing areas within the mid-southern and southeastern states this week.
“Scattered showers have continued to move across the Texas panhandle with heavier precipitation expected next week,” Mr Rose said.
“Continued rain will likely hinder final planting operations and weed control measures.”
