(Agrimoney) – US winter wheat seedlings have got off to a far worse start than investors had expected, undermined by drought in some western and southern areas, and raising further questions over global production potential for 2015.
The US Department of Agriculture, in its first condition assessment for the season, rated 59% of the winter wheat crop, which is still in the latter stages of planting, in “good” or “excellent” condition.
That was below the 61% rating a year ago, although not an unusually low rating by historical standards, and above the 40% figure, for instance, in 2012.
However, it was well below expectations among analysts of 68% of the crop being rated good or excellent, following rains which, while slowing corn and soybean harvests, have created moist seed beds for winter grains.
Midwest vs the rest
Indeed, in the Corn Belt, where the row crop harvest has been particularly slow, winter wheat has emerged in good health.
In Illinois, Indiana and Ohio, all growers of the soft red winter wheat type traded in Chicago, the proportion of crop rated good or excellent came in at 69%, 70% and 71% respectively.
However, condition was less promising in the southern US hard red winter wheat area, with 52% of Oklahoma seedlings rated good or excellent, 50% of the Texas crop and 47% in Colorado.
And in the north western US, largely a grower of white winter wheat, only 33% of seedlings in Oregon, and 24% in Washington, were rated in good or excellent health.
Lack of rainfall
The divergence between the fortunes of the Midwest states and those further south and west reflects indeed rainfall patterns, with Texas, for instance, in the grips of long-term drought.
Some 49% of the state is rated as being in drought, a figure which has not fallen below 20% in four years.
USDA crop scouts in Texas also raised a pest threat, adding that “producers in the Blacklands continued spraying as armyworms were still present in fields”.
In Oklahoma, 64% of the state is seen as being in drought, up from 38% at the start of the year and 35% a year ago.
Into Washington too
In the north western US, 84% of Oregon was rated as being in drought, up from 38% a year ago, although USDA scouts noted that last week “there was much-needed rain that helped field crops”.
The dryness has spread to Washington too, of which 40% is now in drought, up from zero a year ago and at the start of 2014, although again USDA scouts noted some moisture last week.
“The east central region reported that rain improved moisture conditions for dry land winter wheat seedlings.”
Russian setbacks
The disappointing condition of US winter wheat seedlings comes against a backdrop of concerns over the impact of dryness on Russian seedlings, with SovEcon giving the crop its lowest rating on data going back to 2009.
With Russian winters often severe, the poor development of the crop raises the threat of large rates of winterkill, as was indeed 12.6% in the winter of 2009-10.
