Crop Tour Predicts Indiana Corn, Soybeans will Miss Last Year’s Harvest

August 19th, 2015

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Category: Grains, Oilseeds

Corn-on-Cob450x299(Wall Street Journal) – Indiana’s corn crop will pale in comparison to last year, according to an average of survey results collected in the state by scouts on a closely watched crop tour.

Corn yields across six regions of Indiana were estimated Tuesday at 142.94 bushels per acre, below the state’s three-year average of 155.21, and nearly 23% less than the crop tour’s 2014 average of 185.03 bushels per acre.

The state’s corn crop, which is the fifth-largest in the nation, also will miss the most recent federal forecasts, in which the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Aug. 1 projected yields at 158 bushels per acre.

The new estimate is 24% lower than last year’s state average of 188.0 bushels per acre, reported by the USDA.

“I have never seen such a mess in all my life,” said Dick Overby, a retired Minnesota farmer, of Indiana’s corn, adding that crops were “short, with too few kernels, small ears and stunted stalks. You name it—if it didn’t work right it happened in Indiana.”

Yield forecasts are based on data collected by participants on the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour, who descend each year on fields in the Midwest to size up corn and soybean crops.

Survey results suggest soybeans in Indiana will come in at 1093.08 pods per 3-foot square, below the state’s three-year average of 1146.39 pods and 10.5% lower than the crop tour’s 2014 average of 1220.79 pods.

Pro Farmer doesn’t forecast soybean yields for the 2015-2016 crop year beginning Sept. 1, as numerous factors can affect the quality of the plants before the end of the growing season, including weather. August is a critical month for setting soybean pods and filling them with beans.

The USDA earlier this month pegged the nation’s soybean crop at 3.92 billion bushels, below last year’s record crop, but well above what analysts had anticipated. Heavy June rains this year drenched fields in the eastern Midwest, thwarting seeding of some soybean crops and leeching nutrients from the soil in corn fields.

The government estimated U.S. corn production in 2015 will total 13.7 billion bushels, also surprising analysts who had wagered that excess moisture in parts of the Midwest would lead to smaller crops. The projected corn crop would be the third-largest in U.S. history after the record harvests of the past two years.

Corn futures gained on Tuesday, buoyed in part by reports from the tour of poor crops throughout much of western Indiana and eastern Illinois. Though the corn market rallied earlier this summer, prices for the grain currently are trading below $4 a bushel, less than half what they were when a withering U.S. drought pushed prices to record highs in 2012.

Market participants are closely following results of the crop tour to see whether new estimates support USDA’s unexpectedly large projections for this year’s crops.

Veteran crop scouts reported highly variable corn yields in Ohio on Monday, and said summer rains also had taken a hefty toll on Indiana’s crops.

“It doesn’t look pretty at all out here,” said Bill Bayliss, an Ohio farmer and longtime scout. “There are a lot of sorry-looking corn crops. Beans are faring a little bit better.”

Meanwhile, Nebraska’s corn crop, the third-largest in the nation, is expected to yield an average 165.16 bushels per acre, well above the state’s three-year average of 150.16 bushels and the crop tour’s 2014 average of 163.77 bushels, but below the USDA’s prediction of 187 bushels made earlier this month.

Soybeans in that state averaged 1220.02 pods, above the state’s three-year average of 1045.54, and the crop tour’s 2014 average of 1103.26 pods.

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