Crop Tour Forecasts Illinois Corn 15% Higher Than 2013 Harvest

August 21st, 2014

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Category: Grains, Oilseeds

(Wall Street Journal) – Illinois’s corn crop is forecast to vastly outperform last year’s harvest, according to an average of survey results collected in the state by scouts on an annual tour through the Midwest.

In Illinois, corn yields were estimated Wednesday at 196.96 bushels per acre, well above the state’s three-year average of 149.36, and more than 15% greater than the crop tour’s 2013 average of 170.48 bushels.

The new estimate also surpasses the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Aug. 1 forecast for the state, which projected yields at 188 bushels per acre.

Projections are based on data collected by participants on the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour, who annually spread out across farms in the Midwest to take stock of corn and soybean fields.

Soybeans in Illinois are expected to clock in at 1299.17 pods per 3-foot square, more than the state’s three-year average of 1085.35, and 16% higher than the crop tour’s 2013 average of 1115.97 pods.

Pro Farmer doesn’t forecast soybean yields for the 2014-2015 crop year beginning Sept. 1, as multiple factors can affect the quality of the plants before the end of the growing season, including weather. August is a crucial month for setting soybean pods and filling them with beans.

“The corn doesn’t surprise me,” said Pat Buell, a retired Illinois farmer who said his group of scouts saw good soil moisture and plant development. “We were ankle deep in mud in some fields.”

The USDA earlier this month forecast U.S. corn production will exceed 14 billion bushels, far exceeding last year’s record harvest. Expectations for a monster crop have pushed corn prices to near four-year lows in 2014, after declining 40% last year.

Corn futures fell on Wednesday, after crop scouts continued to report better-than-average yields as they journeyed across the U.S. Midwest. Tour participants on Tuesday reported that Indiana’s corn crop was developing on schedule, with most plants having completed pollination, their most crucial stage.

Some tour participants were surprised by the huge estimated leap in soybean production, having found low pod counts amid cracked, dry fields in Illinois. But farmers said any rain in August would help fill out the remaining beans.

The USDA earlier this month estimated the nation’s soybean crop at a record 3.82 billion bushels, by far the largest harvest in U.S. history.

Industry experts said they are keenly following data released by tour organizers to judge whether earlier forecasts for unprecedented bounty pan out.

Preliminary results from three districts in Iowa, the nation’s largest corn producer, show the state’s crop will be larger than both its three-year average and the tour’s 2013 average.

Soybeans in that state will also surpass levels reached last year.

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