(Southeast Farm Press) – After a November U.S. Department of Agriculture crop report described as “pretty boring,” Ohio State University Extension Economist Matt Roberts said the grain markets are largely watching other markets and awaiting thoughts of buying acres for 2012 production.
“The grain market overall did not look at the report as particularly bullish or bearish,” Roberts said.
“The market, over the past few weeks, has been much more influenced by the outside markets, primarily equities and the European debt situation. Those have been much bigger factors than grain market fundamentals.”
Roberts said USDA’s latest crop production figures and estimates of supply and demand yielded few significant changes. The report, released Nov. 9, showed a decrease in corn production of 1.4 bushels per acre, down to an average yield of 146.7 bushels. Roberts said that figure indicated the lowest yield in eight years. The report suggested a 123 million bushel cut in total production from the previous month’s report, while cutting consumption of feed grains by 100 million bushels due to lower broiler numbers and expected price rationing.
“People were looking for yield revisions in corn and soybeans, because we continue to be uncertain about yields,” he explained. “Every report that comes out is a suspense-filled event, and we had projections for corn yields all over the place.”
Roberts noted that in terms of soybeans, USDA made a much smaller reduction in expected average yield, reducing it from 41.5 to 41.3 bushels per acre. He said that amounted to a 14 million bushel reduction in total production. He also observed that the biggest change in the soybean markets wasn’t necessarily found in the USDA report, but rather from a growing sentiment among market watchers.
