Soybean futures started the week 3.5% higher after also surging last Friday on pre-WASDE bullishness and positioning. Analysts polled by Reuters said USDA would cut soybean condition rating by 1% to 62% good to excellent, still above 58%, the 5-year average. The 6 to 10 day weather forecast now shows a combination of below average rainfall and above average temps for the Midwest which may also add support this week. The CNGOIC (Chinese National Grains and Oils Information Center) think-tank estimates China will import 76 million tonnes of soybeans this year, up 8% from the previous year and 2 million tonnes higher than the USDA forecast. September soybeans gained 32.75 cents to $10.0825/bushel Monday, while September soyoil rose .36 cents to 30.49 cents/pound and September meal gained $9.3 to $353.60/ton.
Ample supplies and reported near-record yields in the spring wheat harvest did not keep wheat futures from rising Monday. Some pockets of dryness in EU as well as some spillover bullishness from corn and beans could’ve lent support. Analysts polled by Reuters said USDA would cut the spring wheat condition rating by 1% today, to 69% good to excellent, still above 58%, the 5-year average. Analysts also estimate the spring wheat harvest at 16% complete, up 8% from last week and . September CBOT wheat futures surged 15 cents to $5.255/bushel Monday, while Sep KC wheat advanced 9.75 cents to $5.045/bushel, and September MWE firmed 9.25 cents $5.3425.
It now seems readily evident that live cattle have a hit a seasonal low as futures closed higher Monday, following cash beef values to 1-month highs. Choice cuts were up 1.15 cents to 236.34 and select cuts were up 1.75 cents to 230.14. Buyer interest has picked up ahead of the Labor Day demand increase and data suggests that, on average, post-summer cattle values have risen 13% to their fourth-quarter highs, thereby suggesting more support ahead. Nearby cattle settled about 1 cent above the 50-day moving average and just under 3 cents below the 100-day moving average. October live cattle gained 0.77 cents to 149.30 cents/pound Monday, while February futures rose 0.35 cents to 150.02. Meanwhile, October feeder cattle futures fell 0.22 cents to 210.37 cents/pound, while November feeders lost to 206.12.
Lean hogs corrected for the fourth straight day Monday, hitting 3-week lows despite steady cash hog values. Analysts predict reports this week will reiterate record-large pork production, dampening recent bullishness in the pork market. Reponses from PEDv last year that included the holding back of breeding stock may have caused producers to overcorrect. Conversely, increased demand for “the other white meat” as a substitute meat may help limit downside action this week and possibly provide support. October hog futures closed 1.22 cents lower to 62.97 cents/pound Monday, while February lost 0.30 cents to 66.20.
