(AgriMoney) – Data from the US officials dealing with distribution of farm support cash signals that corn and soybean sowings may have been higher than current estimates show, a factor seen adding to pressure on prices.
The Farm Service Agency lifted by more than 800,000 acres to 93.8m acres its figure for US corn sowings for the forthcoming harvest.
While lower than the US Department of Agriculture’s official forecast of 96.4m acres, the FSA figure, gauged by farmers’ returns to the agency, does not reflect all plantings.
Some farms, particularly larger ventures, chose not to enrol in FSA programmes, and so go uncounted in its data.
Higher plantings?
In September last year, the FSA figure for planted acres – including failed crops, but now sowings which farmers were unable to complete – was some 3.6% short of the final USDA estimate.
Applying a similar adjustment to the latest FSA report would lift the USDA corn sowings figure to 97.3m acres.
That is some 900,000 acres more than the USDA has currently factored in.
For soybeans – for which the FSA raised its acreage figure by some 800,000 acres to 75.7m acres – a similar methodology also signals a higher figure for actual US plantings of the oilseed than current USDA thinking.
At 77.2m acres, the implied sowings figure is 1.1m acres above the USDA estimate.
Implications
The figures were viewed by broker Country Futures as among the “negative” factors which sent crop prices sharply lower on Monday.
In corn, the data also complicate a debate over how many acres US farmers will end up harvesting for grain.
While many analysts believe the drought has forced the abandonment a higher percentage of crop than the USDA is currently factoring in, their estimates are based on the current forecast for overall sowings of 96.4m acres.
