Closing Grains Commentary

(Farm and Ranch Guide) – Wheat –  December Wheat finished down 2 3/4 at 903, 11 1/2 off the high and 5 3/4 up from the low. March Wheat closed down 2 1/4 at 911. This was 4 3/4 up from the low and 10 1/4 off the high. – CME Group

December Chicago wheat traded slightly lower on the day after wheat futures trended lower into the close as profit taking from earlier gains took over. A supportive tone to the market was seen midsession ahead of tomorrow’s meeting of Russian government officials and after a Russian grain analyst cut Russian wheat production estimates to 38 million tonnes vs. current USDA estimates of 43. Traders are expecting a slowdown in wheat exports in the Black Sea which could force more business to the US. An increase in export tenders has been seen this week as major importers are becoming concerned with rising food prices and a contracting world wheat supply outlook. Total net weekly export sales for wheat, came in at 509,300 tonnes which was in line with market estimates. Sales of 539,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. – CME Group

Wheat futures are trading 3 cents lower to 3 cents higher. USDA weekly export sales were expected to be 450-550,000 MT.  Net sales were 508,417 MT for 2012/13 and 850 MT for 2013/14.  The Russian agricultural ministry said there is no need for an export ban on grain at the present time. The ministry committee will meet today to discuss how to address weakening yields across southern and central Russia.  There were rumors about potential changes to the export policy due to rising prices in the Urals and elsewhere. -Brugler Marketing

Sep 12 CBOT Wheat is at $8.88 3/4, up 3 1/4 cents, Sep 12 KCBT Wheat is at $8.95, down 1 1/4 cents, Sep 12 MGEX Wheat is at $9.40, down 1/2 cent, Dec 12 MGEX Wheat is at $9.55, unch -Brugler Marketing

Soybeans – November Soybeans finished up 10 1/2 at 1763 1/2, 7 3/4 off the high and 28 1/4 up from the low. January Soybeans closed up 15 at 1757 1/2. This was 31 1/4 up from the low and 5 3/4 off the high. – CME Group

December Soymeal closed up 5.3 at 535.3. This was 10.6 up from the low and 3.6 off the high. – CME Group

December Soybean Oil finished down 0.05 at 57.25, 0.22 off the high and 0.3 up from the low. – CME Group

November soybeans traded higher on the day and made new contract highs. Soybean meal traded stronger while oil ended the day slightly lower. Strong export sales data and concern that heavy rainfall could damage soybean crops in the Southeast and Delta added support. Traders also fear that yesterday’s 95-100 degree heat in Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, and South Dakota may have done permanent damage to soybean yields. Total net weekly export sales came in at 721,300 tonnes which was in line with market expectations. Only 237,000 tonnes of sales are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast for 2012/13. The high rate of demand for US soybeans continues to be a supportive force going forward. Net meal sales totaled 205,400 tonnes and total net oil sales came in at 68,700 tonnes. Profit taking was seen late in the session to force soybeans off their highs as traders prepare for tomorrow’s speech by the US Federal Reserve Chairman.  – CME Group

Soybeans are currently trading double digits higher making new contract highs. Trade estimates for weekly US export sales were in the 1.3-1.5 MMT range. Net sales for the week ending August 23 were a minus 10,087 MT and were 731,383 MT for 2012/13 delivery. The new marketing year begins September 1. Maybe some price rationing beginning or maybe just shifting old crop purchases to the new marketing year. An unknown cancelled 176,000 MT for 2011/12 delivery but China bought 364,300 MT for 2012/13 delivery as of the reporting date.  Asian buyers other than China have been ramping up purchases this week. Uncertainty about the size of the current US crop is also supporting the market, with improved conditions in the ECB counterbalanced with continued dryness and dismal pod counts in the WCB.  Rain from Hurricane Isaac will be beneficial to some double crop soybeans.  -Brugler Marketing

Sep 12 Soybeans are at $17.76, up 12 3/4 cents, Nov 12 Soybeans are at $17.66 1/2, up 13 1/2 cents, Jan 13 Soybeans are at $17.59, up 16 1/2 cents, Mar 13 Soybeans are at $16.82, up 13 1/2 cents, Sep 12 Soybean Meal is at $549.00, up $5.70, Sep 12 Soybean Oil is at $56.64, unch -Brugler Marketing

Corn – Corn futures traded in a very narrow, choppy range today. Most contracts ended low-range with fractional to 5-cent losses. September futures were the exception; they closed mid-range with 1 1/4 cent gain. This morning’s Weekly Export Sales Report shifted attention back to the demand side of the equation today. A net sales reduction of 33,700 metric tons (MT) for 2011-12 along with sales of 168,400 MT for 2012-13 fell well short of expectations and point to serious demand destruction. -CME Group

Corn futures are trading slightly higher to slightly lower. USDA reported net weekly export sales for the week ending August 23rd were a minus 33,700 MT for 2011/12 and 168,400 MT for 2012/13 delivery below the low end of trade guesses. The next export report for the week ending August 30th will be Friday September 7th because of the Labor Day holiday. We are approaching the end of the 2011/12 marketing year September 1st.  Looming concerns about drought-stressed stalks toppling with heavy rains and even moderate winds are limiting the downside. Hurricane Isaac is expected to bring heavy rains to the Gulf States with moderate to heavy amounts into Missouri and then the eastern Corn Belt.  The weekly report from the EIA showed ethanol stocks were 18.5 Million barrels, UNCH from last week, and 3.35% higher than the same week last year when they were 17.9 Million barrels.  Ethanol production was put at 819,000 barrels per day, which was the first down week in more than a month. – Brugler Marketing

Sep 12 Corn is at $8.15 1/4, up 5 cents, Dec 12 Corn is at $8.14 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents, Mar 13 Corn is at $8.14 1/4, up 1 1/4 cents, Jul 13 Corn is at $8.07, up 1 1/4 cents – Brugler Marketing