Australia ups wheat export idea even as crop wilts

September 11th, 2012

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Category: Grains

Weather affecting agriculture(AgriMoney) – Australian officials raised their hopes for the country’s wheat exports even as they cut their forecast for the harvest, citing dryness which yet threatens further production downgrades.

Commodities bureau Abares cut by 1.6m tonnes to 22.5m tonnes its forecast for Australia’s 2012-13 wheat production.

The downgrade, which put a tumble of 24% on the cards from last season’s record harvest, reflected dry weather in south eastern Australia and in Western Australia, the top grains producing state, where “conditions for crop planting and establishment were generally poor”.

“Winter rainfall was below average, which hindered crop development and reduced prospective yields to below average,” Abares said, adding that even its current forecast for a 39% drop in Western Australia wheat production could prove an underestimate.

“Sufficient and timely rainfall will be required over the spring to achieve currently forecast yields,” said the bureau, whose figure compares with a 26m-tonne forecast from the US Department of Agriculture which is set on Wednesday to revise its crop estimates.

‘Supply to remain high’

However, Abares raised its estimate for Australia’s wheat exports by 1m tonnes, to 21.5m tonnes, despite the downgrade to production, flagging the rich stocks left over from record harvests in the last two seasons.

“Although wheat production is forecast to fall from last year’s record, the supply of wheat available for export from Australia will remain high,” Abares said.

“Stocks of wheat in Australia have been boosted by consecutive large crops in 2010–11 and 2011–12,” the bureau said, noting that stocks held by grain handlers last month were “well above stock levels at the same month in recent years”.

“For example, stocks in August were around double those at the same time in 2009.”

Export potential

Exports of 21.5m tonnes, while down 800,000 tonnes year on year, would still be well above historical averages, and three times the level of 2007-08, after a severe drought slashed production.

And, indeed, the country was last week reported to have sold 1m tonnes of its forthcoming crop already to Asian importers concerned at the prospect of Black Sea exporters, which they traditionally turn too, running out of supplies to export after drought-hit harvests.

On Monday, Oman bought 20,000 tonnes of Australian wheat.

Rabobank last week, while failing to put a figure on Australian wheat exports in 2012-13, said it expected “increased export demand for Australian feed wheat… as northern hemisphere production issues drive feed markets higher.

“China is expected to demand up to 4m tonnes of feed wheat, with the majority anticipated to come from Australia.

“We also see upside potential for high protein Australian wheat due to production issues in Russia and the potential for lower protein levels in Canadian and US spring wheat crops.”

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