Are You Ready For A Weather Market?

(Inside Futures) – Grain markets are mixed as traders place their bets ahead of today’s big USDA reports. After the Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks numbers, the focus will change to weather, and whether it will be too hot, too cold, too wet or too dry. Stay in touch with the Allendale for the latest.

USDA Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks reports will be released today at 11:00 am. Historically these reports will cause price volatility.

Planted acreage poll by Reuters: Corn 90.969 million acres, Soybeans 88.214 million acres, and wheat 46.139 million acres. USDA 2017 Outlook Forum estimated 90 corn, 88 soybeans and 46 million acres of wheat.

Quarterly stocks analyst poll by Reuters: Wheat 1.627 billion bushel (Last Year 1.372), corn 8.534 (LY 8.205) and soybeans 1.684 (LY 1.627).

Price reaction study done by Allendale’s Rich Nelson shows over the past 15 years July corn has closed higher 9 times after the report. The average of the higher priced years was 15 cents.

AGROCONSULT sees record soybean yields in Brazil, after a recent crop tour. They now estimate the crop at 113.3 million tonnes, up from their previous estimate of 111. They also estimate higher than expected soybean exports at 61.4 million tonnes, up from 61.

Weekly export sales were released yesterday for sales made between Friday the 17ththrough Thursday the 23rd. In corn the total weekly sale was 841,828 metric tonnes (716,856 old crop 2016/17). This was under the trade’s 1,000,000 – 1,500,000 expectation. We have sold 84% of USDA’s whole-year expectation, over the 80% five year average normally seen by this point.

Soybean export sales were better than expected. Combined sales totaled 996,585 metric tonnes (681,025 old crop). This was the best weekly sale in six weeks. The trade expectation was 450,000 – 850,000. We have sold 99% of USDA’s whole-year export expectation. That is over the 93% five year average.

Wheat export sales were strong at 627,629 metric tonnes (464,119 old crop). That was over the 300,000 – 550,000 trade expectation. We have sold 95% of USDA’s whole-year estimate, a little under the 98% five year average for this week.

Managed money funds were sellers in yesterday’s trade of 4,000 corn contracts, 4,500 soybeans, 3,500 wheat, 2,000 soymeal, and 4,000 soyoil.

The average cattle carcass, including feedlot cattle (steers and heifers are 80% of the kill) and cull cows/bulls (20% of kill), fell from 821 lbs for the week ended March 11 to now 817for the week ended March 18.

USDA reported 10,846 metric tonnes of new export sales. That was the lowest sale in five weeks. It was also 62% under last year’s 28,434 in the same week.There was no sign of “extra” US sales from the Brazil meat issue.

Quarterly Hogs & Pigs reported All Hogs at 104.2 (percent of last year) above the 103.9 estimate. Kept for Breeding was 101.5 (estimate was 101.8), and Kept for Marketing was 104.4 (104.0 estimate).

Dressed beef values were lower with choice down1.71and select down 2.21. The CME Feeder Index is 132.85. Pork cutout value is down 1.04.